پیشران ها و سناریوهای توسعه کسب وکارهای سرزمینی در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه با تأکید بر آمایش سرزمین (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کسب وکارهای سرزمینی به عنوان یکی از مهم ترین اجزای اقتصاد جهانی نقش بسزایی در توسعه و رشد اقتصادی کشورها دارند؛ بنابراین توسعه این بخش یکی از دغدغه های سیاست گذاران و مجریان عرصه توسعه صنعتی در کشورهاست. هدف از پژوهش حاضر شناسایی پیشران های مؤثر بر توسعه کسب وکارهای سرزمینی در کشور ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی در راستای آمایش سرزمین است. محققان در این پژوهش در راستای مبانی علم آینده پژوهی با رویکرد اکتشافی و تحلیلی و نیز با به کارگیری مدل های کمّی عوامل و پیشران های مؤثر بر کسب وکارهای سرزمینی را در ایران شناسایی و تحلیل و سناریوهای مختلف را برای توسعه این کسب وکارها در آینده تدوین کرده اند. روش گردآوری اطلاعات مبتنی بر روش مطالعات اسنادی-پیمایشی و تکنیک دلفی بوده که پیشران های پژوهش با استفاده از روش تحلیل تأثیر متقابل شناسایی شده است. در این مطالعه از 9 شاخص و 49 عامل و برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها و تحلیل ساختاری تأثیرگذاری هر یک از متغیر ها از نرم افزار MicMac و Scenario Wizard استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که از میان عوامل بررسی شده 10 عامل به عنوان کلیدی ترین عوامل (تحریم ها، درآمد، جذب سرمایه های خارجی، دسترسی به بازار، دسترسی به سرمایه، مشارکت، دسترسی به تکنولوژی، هزینه انرژی، مشارکت بخش خصوصی و منابع) انتخاب شده است. مهم ترین اولویت در توسعه کسب وکارهای سرزمینی مدیریت عوامل موجود در موقعیت خطر و مخاطره است. همچنین، تأثیر تورم به عنوان یک محرک ثانویه در این زمینه می تواند نقش مهمی در توسعه کسب وکارها داشته باشد. درزمینه نتایج سناریوهای مختلف نیز مشخص شد که رفع تحریم ها و باز شدن درهای اقتصاد جهانی به روی اقتصاد داخلی تنها یک بخش از پازل توسعه کسب وکارهای سرزمینی در ایران است.Driving Forces and Future Scenarios for Territorial Business Development in Iran: A Future-Oriented Study with a Spatial Planning Emphasis
Territorial businesses are crucial components of the global economy and significantly contribute to the development and growth of national economies. Consequently, enhancing this sector has become a primary focus for policymakers and practitioners involved in industrial development. This research employed a quantitative methodology rooted in future studies to explore and analyze the factors and drivers that influence territorial businesses, ultimately developing various scenarios for their future trajectory. Data collection utilized a document-based survey employing the Delphi technique, while the driving forces were identified through cross-impact analysis. A range of factors and variables were considered in this study. To analyze the data and assess the structural impact of each variable, we employed MicMac and scenario analysis techniques. The findings revealed that, among the factors examined, 10 were identified as critical: sanctions, income, foreign direct investment, market access, capital access, participation, technology access, energy costs, private sector involvement, and resource availability. Management of these factors in high-risk situations emerged as the top priority for developing territorial businesses. Additionally, inflation was identified as a significant secondary driver in business development. The scenario analysis results indicated that while lifting sanctions and integrating the domestic economy into the global market were essential steps, they represented only a part of the broader strategy needed to advance territorial businesses in Iran. Keywords: Businesses, Economic Development, Scenario Analysis, Future Studies, Iran Introduction Territorial businesses serve as a cornerstone of the global economy, playing a crucial role in fostering national economic development and growth. In an era marked by globalization, advancements in information and communication technologies, climate change, and geopolitical shifts, these enterprises have become central to socioeconomic progress. They not only contribute to job creation and enhance the productivity of labor and resources, leading to increased incomes, but also promote sustainable and balanced development by leveraging local resources and capabilities. Furthermore, territorial businesses act as vital catalysts for industrial growth, holding particular significance for many developing countries. Globally, these businesses are shaped by a multitude of factors and drivers that significantly influence their performance and competitiveness. In the context of Iran, with its unique geographical features, abundant natural resources, strategic positioning, and skilled workforce, there is substantial potential for the development of territorial enterprises. However, these businesses also encounter numerous challenges and obstacles. This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive and systematic examination of the factors and drivers influencing territorial businesses in Iran, while formulating localized scenarios for their future development. The primary objective was to identify and analyze these elements and develop diverse scenarios that outlined the potential growth trajectories of territorial enterprises in Iran. Materials & Methods This research was applied in nature and employed a descriptive-analytical methodology. It aligned with the principles of foresight studies, adopting both exploratory and analytical approaches. The study utilized quantitative models to identify and analyze the factors and drivers influencing territorial businesses in Iran and develop various scenarios for their future development. Data collection was conducted through documentary surveys using the Delphi technique, incorporating insights from 30 experts and academics selected through purposive sampling. To identify the key drivers of the research, the cross-impact analysis method was employed, allowing for the identification and utilization of relevant indicators and variables. For data analysis, both MICMAC and scenario analysis methods were applied. Research Findings This research aimed to survey experts regarding the various factors influencing business creation and to analyze the relationships between these factors using MicMac software. Key and driving factors were extracted from a total of 49 identified variables. Through matrix analysis and evaluation of the impact and influence of these key factors using both direct and indirect methods, 10 critical factors were selected: sanctions, income, foreign investment attraction, market access, capital access, partnerships, technology access, energy costs, private sector participation, and resources. The results obtained from ScenarioWizard software indicated that of the extracted scenarios, 7 were classified as strong and impactful, while 103 scenarios were deemed weak and 59 were inconsistent. Among the seven strong and viable scenarios, the 1st scenario exhibited fully favorable and progressive conditions, Scenarios 2 and 3 had favorable conditions, Scenario 4 showed intermediate and static conditions, while Scenarios 5 and 6 indicated critical conditions. Lastly, Scenario 7 was characterized by wholly critical conditions. Notably, the component of sanctions emerged as a significant determinant of the future status of territorial businesses in the country. Strong and Driving Scenarios: Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represented optimal, robust, and driving conditions. In these scenarios, all factors were in complete harmony and integration. They included the total lifting of sanctions and the opening of the domestic economy to the global market, increased income for individuals, improved business finances, enhanced foreign investment attraction, a thriving market with increased trade, improved access to capital, and greater utilization of advanced technologies for business prosperity. Among these factors, the complete lifting of sanctions and integration of the domestic economy into the global market were particularly crucial. Effective planning in these areas could significantly boost the market, enhance trade, and create a competitive environment with diverse access to quality production tools and cutting-edge equipment. Intermediate Scenarios (Business as Usual): The "business as usual" scenario reflected an intermediate state, in which the complete lifting of sanctions and the opening of global economic doors to the domestic market had been achieved. However, other critical factors remained either unfavorable or only semi-favorable. This scenario illustrated a situation where the Iranian economy had begun to seize certain global opportunities but had yet to fully capitalize on them. While the removal of sanctions and increased access to the global economy could provide substantial opportunities for economic enhancement and business growth, tangible improvements in people's incomes and the financial health of businesses were essential. Without these improvements, there might be a decline in purchasing power and reduced motivation to invest. In essence, although lifting sanctions might yield positive short-term effects, the lack of sustainable economic progress could render these benefits fleeting and limited. Crisis Scenarios (Business Catastrophes): In these scenarios, while the lifting of sanctions and opening of global markets to the domestic economy might have occurred to some extent, other key factors remained severely critical and unstable. Discussion of Results & Conclusion This research thoroughly identified and analyzed the factors that were essential for the development and optimization of territorial businesses. The findings suggested that independent factors did not inherently threaten business growth; in fact, if the distribution of key factors was balanced, they could foster favorable conditions for expansion. However, the primary focus in developing territorial businesses had to be on managing factors that existed in risky and hazardous environments. Key challenges to business development included access to capital, attracting foreign investment, market access, income levels, and sanctions. Additionally, inflation served as a significant secondary driver impacting business growth. The analysis of various scenarios revealed that while lifting sanctions and integrating the domestic economy into the global market were important steps, they represented only part of the overall strategy for advancing territorial businesses in Iran. The intermediate and crisis scenarios indicated that without effectively managing other critical factors—such as capital access, foreign investment attraction, infrastructure improvement, and market development—the potential benefits of lifting sanctions might not translate into substantial economic improvement or sustainable growth. Therefore, a focus on the integration and effective interaction of these factors was crucial for achieving optimal development.
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