بررسی رابطه امکان مشارکت در آینده و تمایل به مهاجرت از ایران (مطالعه موردی: دانشجویان دانشگاه گیلان) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مهاجرت نخبگان و دانشجویان یکی از جدی ترین چالش های جامعیه ایرانی است. ضعف های ساختاری بخشی از جوانان تحصیل کرذه را مجبور به جلای وطن کرده تا آیندیه بهتر را در کشورهای دیگر جست وجو کنند؛ بنابراین، پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی رابطیه امکان مشارکت و تمایل به مهاجرت از ایران در دانشجویان دانشگاه گیلان با استفاده از نظرییه محرومیت نسبی و تأکید بر بُعد مشارکت آن انجام پذیرفت. این پژوهش ازلحاظ روش، پژوهشی کمّی است و داده ها با حجم نمونیه 384 دانشجو با روش نمونه گیری خوشه ای تصادفی و به وسیلیه پرسش نامه جمع آوری شده است. طبق یافته های پژوهش تمایل به مهاجرت، متوسط رو به بالا و مشارکت سیاسی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی متوسط رو به پایین است. بین امکان مشارکت سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی و تمایل به مهاجرت رابطیه معنادار وجود دارد و با کاهش امکان مشارکت سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی تمایل به مهاجرت در دانشجویان افزایش می یابد. تمایل به مهاجرت باتوجه به دانشکدیه محل تحصیل دانشجویان تفاوت معنادار دارد. میزان تمایل به مهاجرت در دانشجویان فنی بیشتر و در دانشجویان دانشکدیه کشاورزی کمتر از سایرین است. تمایل به مهاجرت در دانشجویان دختر و پسر، همچنین باتوجه به مقطع تحصیلی دانشجویان تفاوت معناداری ندارد. باتوجه به تحلیل مسیر چندمتغیره، مشارکت اجتماعی بیشترین اثر مستقیم را بر تمایل به مهاجرت دارد. همچنین مشارکت سیاسی دارای اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و مشارکت اقتصادی نیز دارای اثرات غیرمستقیم بر تمایل به مهاجرت است.Investigating the Relationship between the Possibility of Participation in the Future and the Desire to Emigrate from Iran (Case Study: Students at the University of Guilan)
IntroductionEmigration of elites and students represents a significant challenge for Iranian society. Structural weaknesses have driven many educated youth to seek a better future abroad. This study aimed to examine the relationship between the likelihood of participation and the desire to emigrate from Iran among students at the University of Guilan, utilizing the theory of relative deprivation and focusing on the dimension of participation. Official statistics indicated that the trend of students leaving Iran had increased over the past 20 years, rising from 29th place in 2003 to 17th in the world by 2022. The primary destinations for Iranian students included the United States, Germany, Turkey, and Canada. Materials & MethodsThis research employed a quantitative approach, utilizing a survey technique and a questionnaire as the primary tools for data collection. The statistical population consisted of all students at the University of Guilan. The sample size was calculated using Cochran's formula, resulting in a total of 384 participants. Random cluster sampling was implemented in this study. Discussion of Results & ConclusionThe findings of this study indicated that the desire to emigrate was moderately high, while political, economic, and social participation levels were relatively low. A significant relationship existed between the potential for political, social, and economic participation and the desire to emigrate. Specifically, as opportunities for participation decreased, the desire to emigrate among students increased. Notably, the desire to emigrate varied according to the field of study, with students in technical disciplines exhibiting a stronger inclination to leave, while those in the Faculty of Agriculture demonstrated a lower desire compared to their peers. There were no significant differences in emigration aspirations between male and female students or across various academic levels. Multivariate path analysis revealed that social participation had the most direct impact on the desire to emigrate. Political participation influenced this desire both directly and indirectly, whereas economic participation primarily exerted an indirect effect. As valuable members of the society, the students bore various post-graduation responsibilities. However, their lack of integration into societal systems had often led to exclusion from decision-making processes, creating conditions that fostered emigration.The departure of educated individuals imposed substantial costs on the political system. While some attributed the emigration of skilled professionals to globalization and cosmopolitanism—suggesting that these individuals rationally sought better financial opportunities—the results indicated that the potential for social and political participation significantly influenced emigration trends more than economic factors did. Weak social participation highlighted serious deficiencies in the civil conditions of the society. Social participation was fundamentally linked to individuals' social status; therefore, attention had to be given to the social standing of students, ensuring they felt respected and impactful within their communities. The data suggested that the students' negative perceptions regarding social participation underscored the urgent need to reform trust-building processes, facilitate membership in non-governmental organizations, and institutionalize social freedoms. Furthermore, the lack of opportunities for political participation had diminished political legitimacy among students, restricting their access to political parties, associations, and policymaking. To enhance social participation, it was essential to create a safe environment for social activities, strengthen social trust, and support student organizations. To increase political participation, policymakers should consider solutions, such as enabling involvement in political decision-making, strengthening political parties and organizations, and reducing political restrictions. For improving economic participation, it is vital to focus on creating suitable job opportunities, supporting research and innovation, and addressing economic inequalities. Additional recommendations include strengthening educational and research systems, fostering a sense of belonging and national identity, alleviating psychological and social pressures, and promoting hope for the future.
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