شناسایی و پهنه بندی مناطق مستعد وقوع خطر زمین لغزش با استفاده از روش تحلیل چند معیاره آراس (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوضه آبخیز قرنقوچای در جنوب شرق استان آذربایجان شرقی) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پدیده زمین لغزش از انواع حرکت های دامنه ای است که همواره خسارت های مالی و جانی زیادی را در پی دارد. در این میان، برای کاهش خسارت های ناشی از چنین حرکاتی، شناخت دقیق مکان های در معرض خطر بسیار مؤثر است. حوضه آبخیز قرنقوچای با توجه به شرایط زمین شناسی، فیزیوگرافی، لیتولوژی، اقلیمی و انسانی از دیرباز تحت تأثیر وقوع خطر زمین لغزش بوده است. بر این اساس، محققان در پژوهش حاضر به دنبال ارزیابی و پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش در سطح این حوضه هستند. در این راستا، ابتدا نقشه پراکنش زمین لغزش ها و متغیرهای تأثیرگذار (شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع، لیتولوژی، کاربری اراضی، بارش، فاصله از راه ارتباطی، فاصله از آبراهه و فاصله از گسل) فراهم و در مرحله بعدی با استفاده از تابع عضویت فازی، درجه عضویت پارامترها و با استفاده از روش کریتیک، مقدار های وزنی معیارها تعیین و در نهایت، نقشه حساسیت زمین لغزش با استفاده از روش تصمیم گیری چند معیاره ARAS استخراج شد. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده شیب، لیتولوژی و کاربری اراضی به ترتیب با مقدار های 162/0، 152/0 و 147/0بیشترین وزن را از بین عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع زمین لغزش داشتند. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان داد که به ترتیب 86/12 و 42/25 درصد از مساحت حوضه در طبقه بسیار پرخطر و پرخطر قرار دارد. به طور عمده، مناطق بسیار پرخطر و پرخطر در قسمت های کوهستانی شمالی، جنوبی و بخش مرکزی حوضه واقع شده است که این پهنه ها از لحاظ کارهای مدیریتی و اجرای پروژه های حفاظتی باید در اولویت قرار گیرند. همچنین، با نظر به بهره گیری از روش منحنی راک و با سطح زیرمنحنی (89/0) دقت روش ARAS در شناسایی و پهنه بندی مناطق مستعد وقوع خطر زمین لغزش حوضه قرنقوچای در سطح عالی است.Identification and Zoning of Areas Prone to the Occurrence of Landslides Using the Aras Multi-Criteria Analysis Method (Study Area: Qaranqoochay Watershed in the Southeast of East Azarbaijan Province)
Landslides are a type of mass movement that often result in significant financial and human losses. Effectively mitigating these losses requires identifying high-risk areas. The Qaranqoochay Basin has long been susceptible to landslides due to its geological, physiographic, lithological, climatic, and anthropogenic conditions. This study aimed to assess and zone the landslide risk within this basin. First, a distribution map was created depicting landslides and relevant variables, including slope, aspect, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), lithology, land use, rainfall, and distance from roads, rivers, and faults. The degree of membership for each parameter was then determined using fuzzy membership functions, and the criteria weights were calculated using the CRITIC method. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map was generated using the ARAS multi-criteria decision analysis approach. The results indicated that slope, lithology, and land use were the most influential factors with weights of 0.162, 0.152, and 0.147, respectively. Approximately 12.86 and 25.42% of the basin area were classified as high-risk and very high-risk, respectively. These high-risk zones were primarily located in the northern, southern, and central parts of the basin, warranting prioritized management and protection efforts. The use of the rock curve method and sub-curve level (0.89) demonstrated the excellent accuracy of the ARAS method in identifying and zoning landslide-prone areas within the Qaranqoochay Basin. Keywords: Hazard, Mass Movement, Qaranqoochay Watershed, MCDM. IntroductionLandslides are among the most dangerous natural disasters, resulting in significant loss of life, financial resources, and natural capital worldwide (Nazariani & Fallah, 2023; Silakhouri et al., 2023). The severe implications of landslides for the environment underscore the need to mitigate the damages caused by this hazard (Porfarazeshzadeh & Asghari Saraskanroud, 2022). The Qaranqoochay Basin is highly susceptible to landslides due to its unique geographic characteristics, including mountainous terrain, steep slopes, the presence of loose surface materials overlying resistant bedrock, and climatic conditions (e.g., spring rainfall and snowmelt). Despite the basin's vulnerability and the damages caused by past landslide events, such as destruction of transportation infrastructure and erosion of valuable soil resources, the landslide potential in this area has not been thoroughly investigated using multi-criteria analysis techniques. This research aimed to address this gap by employing the novel ARAS multi-criteria decision-making method to assess and zone the landslide risk within the Qaranqoochay Basin. The findings of this study will help inform effective risk management and mitigation strategies to protect the basin's communities, infrastructure, and natural resources. Materials & MethodsThis applied research employed an integrated data analysis, Geographic Information System (GIS), and multi-criteria analysis approach. Several software packages, including ENVI, Ecognition, ArcGIS, Idrisi, and Excel, were utilized for image processing and data analysis. To assess the landslide risk, the researchers first identified the key influencing factors, including slope, aspect, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), lithology, land use, rainfall, and distance from roads, rivers, and faults. These factors were selected based on the natural and anthropogenic conditions of the study area. Next, information layers corresponding to each of these factors were prepared within the GIS environment. The relative importance of the investigated factors was determined using the CRITIC weighting method and the final landslide risk assessment was conducted using the ARAS multi-criteria decision-making approach. After generating the landslide susceptibility map, the accuracies of the models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Research FindingsThe analysis revealed a strong correlation between the identified high-risk and very high-risk areas and the locations of observed landslides. Specifically, 30.76% of the landslides that occurred within the basin fell into the high-risk category, while 55.77% were situated within the very high-risk zones. The spatial distribution of cities and villages across the risk classes further highlighted the basin's vulnerability. The cities of Turkmanchay and Qarah Aghaj, along with 120 villages (16.13% of the total villages), were located within the very high-risk areas. The high-risk class encompassed the city of Nazarkehrizi and 223 villages (29.97% of the total). Additionally, the cities of Hashtroud, Mianeh, Aqkand, and Tikmehdash, as well as 178 villages (23.92%), fell within the medium-risk category. The remaining villages were distributed across the low-risk (158 villages, 21.24%) and very low-risk (65 villages, 8.74%) classes. These findings underscored the widespread landslide risk faced by the communities within the Qaranqoochay Basin with a significant proportion of the population and infrastructure located in the high-risk and very high-risk areas. Targeted risk mitigation and adaptation strategies will be crucial to enhance the resilience of the basin's settlements and protect its natural resources.Discussion of Results & ConclusionThe landslide risk zoning analysis revealed that the most influential factors for landslide occurrence in the study area were slope (weight: 0.162), lithology (weight: 0.152), and land use (weight: 0.147). Specifically, slopes between 10-55%, areas with discontinuous Quaternary fine and coarse-grained surface materials, marl, sandstone, conglomerate, sandy pyroclastic rocks, silt, clay, and volcanic ash, as well as agricultural and poor-to-medium pasture lands, exhibited severe disturbance and high landslide potential. The results further indicated that 12.86 and 25.42% of the basin area fell into the high-risk and very high-risk categories, respectively. These high-risk zones should be prioritized for targeted management interventions and protection projects. Application of the ROC curve analysis with an area under the curve of 0.89 demonstrated the excellent accuracy of the ARAS multi-criteria decision-making method in identifying and delineating landslide-prone areas within the Qaranqoochay Basin. This robust analytical approach is expected to be of significant interest to researchers seeking appropriate landslide risk assessment and zoning methodologies, particularly in regions with natural and anthropogenic characteristics similar to the study area. These findings provide a valuable foundation for developing comprehensive landslide risk management strategies within the Qaranqoochay Basin. By targeting the high-risk and very high-risk zones, local authorities and stakeholders can implement effective mitigation measures to enhance community resilience and safeguard critical infrastructure and natural resources.
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