مکان یابی بهینه احداث کارخانه تصفیه روغن خوراکی در ایران در شرایط عدم قطعیت با روش ترکیبی D-AHP (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
چگونگی سرمایه گذاری و انتخاب مکان مناسب برای احداث کارخانه از مسائلی است که به موجب اهمیت حیاتی برای کارخانجات، شرکت ها یا سازمان ها به دلیل تأثیرات آن بر عواملی مانند عملکرد، سودآوری، رقابت پذیری، بقا و معیارهای مختلفی از جمله اجتماعی، اقتصادی، محیطی، کیفی و کمی و اهداف دیگر همواره موردتوجه سرمایه گذاران و مدیران قرار گرفته است. از آنجایی که تصمیم گیری در این زمینه استراتژیک بوده و در نتیجه اطلاعات ناقص کارشناسان در شرایط عدم قطعیت ممکن است موفقیت در بهره برداری آتی را کاهش دهد؛ از اینرو محققان روش های مختلفی را برای انتخاب مکان مناسب معرفی کرده اند. تئوری اعداد D به عنوان بسطی از نظریه دمپستر– شافر در مکان یابی ضمن برطرف کردن نواقص موجود در نظریه دمپستر– شافر، نقصان اطلاعات کارشناس را در پیش بینی لحاظ می کند. در این پژوهش به دلیل میزان قابل توجه تقاضا و حساسیت در جهت دهی صحیح منابع سرمایه ای با توجه به حجم بالای سرمایه مورد نیاز و اهمیت فراوان در انتخاب مکان مناسب در جغرافیای ایران برای حصول موفقیت و اینکه همواره سرمایه گذاری در این صنعت جذابیت داشته است ضمن انتخاب معیارهای با اهمیت، بررسی انتخاب مکان مناسب برای احداث کارخانه تصفیه روغن خوراکی در سی و یک استان کشور با روش ترکیبی فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و تئوری اعداد D (D-AHP)، به دلیل توانایی آن در تحلیل داده ها در شرایط عدم قطعیت که می تواند برآورد واقعی تری را فراهم کند، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. عوامل مؤثر بر مسئله تحقیق این پژوهش در قالب روش ترکیبی (D-AHP) و بر مبنای اجماع نظرهای ده نفر از کارشناسان و افراد خبره به کمک طوفان فکری کمک گرفته شده است که این عوامل شامل: دسترسی به مواد اولیه، تقاضای استانی، هزینه های سرمایه ای ثابت مانند زمین و ... و ظرفیت های (کارخانجات) تولیدی موجود در منطقه و فراوانی مصرف در همسایگی استان و تهدید بالقوه برای صنعت در صورت تمرکز مطلوب بر مبنای رفتار مصرف کنندگان و عوامل سیاسی و اجتماعی هستند.Optimum location of construction of edible oil refining plant in Iran under conditions of uncertainty with D-AHP combined method
Extwnded Introduction: How to invest and choose the right place to build a factory is one of the issues that is of vital importance for factories / companies or organizations due to its effects on factors such as performance, profitability, competitiveness, survival and various criteria such as social, economic, environmental, quality and Quantities and other goals are always noticeable to investors and managers.Materials & Methods: Since decision-making in this field is strategic and as a result, the incomplete information of experts in conditions of uncertainty may reduce the success of future exploitation; Therefore, researchers have introduced different methods to choose the right place; D number theory as an extension of Dempster-Shafer theory in locating, while solving the deficiencies in Dempster-Shafer theory, takes into account the lack of expert information in forecasting. In this research, due to the significant amount of demand and sensitivity in the correct direction of capital resources, considering the high amount of capital required and the great importance in choosing the right place in the geography of Iran to achieve success, and that investing in this industry has always been attractive, while choosing criteria with The importance of investigating the selection of a suitable location for the construction of an edible oil refinery in thirty-one provinces of the country with the combined method of Analytical Hierarchy Process and D-Number Theory (D-AHP), due to its ability to analyze data under conditions of uncertainty that can provide a more realistic estimate , has been investigated.Results & Discussion: the factors affecting the research problem of this research in the form of a combined method (D-AHP) and based on the consensus of the opinions of ten experts and experts have been helped with the help of brainstorming, which include: access to Raw materials, provincial demand, fixed capital costs such as land, etc. and the production capacities (factories) in the region and the frequency of consumption in the neighborhood of the province and the potential threat to the industry in case of a favorable focus are based on the behavior of consumers and political and social factors. Based on the hierarchical structure, the paired relations of D numbers for the criteria, sub-criteria (1 to 17) and options at different levels of investigation and weights have been calculated with this method, and the criteria of access to raw materials (crude oil) and provincial demand are the most important criteria. Finally, the important weights and ranks of places (provinces) in relation to the overall goal have been calculated and prioritized. Important criteria include: access to primary oil raw materials (distance from ports), fixed capital costs such as land, etc., the amount of demand in the provinces, the amount of previously created production capacities, the frequency of consumption in the neighborhood of the provinces, the lifespan of the industry in The future and political and social factors have been investigated and evaluated for 31 provinces of the country with the combined method (D-AHP) and with the consensus opinion of ten experts in the field of Iranian oil industry.Conclusion: Therefore, the suitable place for investment in the future according to the importance coefficient of the criteria and sub-criteria and in the order of priority are as follows: provinces; Tehran (first priority), Semnan (second priority), Alborz (third priority), Central (fourth priority), Mazandaran (fifth priority), Isfahan (sixth priority), Qom (seventh priority), Fars (eighth priority), Lorestan (priority 9th), South Khorasan (10th priority), Khuzestan (11th priority), Kahkiloyeh and Boyar Ahmad (12th priority), Zanjan (13th priority), Hormozgan (14th priority), Kerman (15th priority), Yazd (16th priority), Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (17th priority), Bushehr (18th priority), Qazvin (19th priority), East Azerbaijan (20th priority), Razavi Khorasan (21st priority), Hamadan (22nd priority), West Azerbaijan (23rd priority) ), Gilan (24th priority), Kurdistan (25th priority), North Khorasan (26th priority), Ardabil (27th priority), Sistan and Baluchistan (28th priority), Ilam (27th priority) 9th), Kermanshah (30th priority), Golestan (31st priority). Finally, the important weights and ranks of the places (provinces) have been calculated and prioritized in relation to the overall goal, which will facilitate optimal decision-making and appropriate selection for new investment and prevent waste in the consumption of capital resources and strategic planning in the long term and prevent It helps and prevents the crisis of reduction of national gross product and reduction of capacity or closure of factories, which will lead to unemployment of many employees and activists in this field and social consequences. And it shows the rational policy making to reach the desired situation.
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