تحلیل اثرپذیری شاخص های اقتصادی از همه گیری ویروس کرونا (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ویروس کرونا یک بیماری تنفسی است که اولین بار در سال 2019 در شهر ووهان چین شناسایی شد و آثار و تبعات بسیاری بر ساختار اقتصادی مناطق مختلف ازجمله مناطق روستایی داشته است. مناطق روستایی، به ویژه در کشورهای درحال توسعه برای مقابله با تأثیر مستقیم و غیرمستقیم این بحران، آمادگی کمتری دارند. لذا هدف این پژوهش ارزیابی اثرات ویروس کرونا بر شاخص های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی در شهرستان زاهدان است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش انجام کار توصیفی- تحلیلی است که به دو روش مطالعه کتابخانه ای و پیمایشی میدانی انجام می پذیرد. جامعه آماری تحقیق را خانوارهای روستایی شهرستان زاهدان تشکیل می دهد که با توجه به پراکندگی روستاها و تعداد زیاد آن ها تعداد 20 روستا به صورت تصادفی به عنوان روستای نمونه انتخاب شدند که بر طبق سرشماری سال 1395، این روستاها جمعاً 4456 خانوار برابر با 18365 نفر جمعیت داشته است که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 354 تن به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شده است. برای تجزیه وتحلیل یافته ها از آزمون تحلیل رگرسیون چندمتغیره و آزمون تی تک نمونه ای استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد شاخص های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی با میانگین 773/2 پایین تر از وضعیت مطلوب ارزیابی شده اند. بررسی اثرات همه گیری ویروس کرونا بر شاخص ها و متغیر های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی نشان داد که همه گیری ویروس کرونا بیشترین تأثیر را با ضریب بتای 398/0- بر فضای کسب وکار و کمترین تأثیر را با ضریب بتای 147/0 بر متغیر مهاجرت دارد.Analysis of the Impact of Economic Indicators on the Corona Virus Epidemic
1- INTRODUCTION
According to ILO data, most of the poor live in rural areas, where the poverty rate is four times higher than in urban areas, and the lack of suitable work is strongly felt in these areas. The villages of Zahedan city have faced many problems such as drought, poor sanitation, poor infrastructure, problems caused by the corona epidemic, weakness in the health and sanitation system, and other issues, which caused the corona to impose a double economic burden on the households. Considering that the lack of control of the disease and its spread and new strains can have many consequences for the economy, especially the rural economy, on the rural households of Zahedan city, and it will bear significant negative effects, it is appropriate to address this issue in this research. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the question, what are the effects of the corona disease epidemic on the economic structure of rural households?
According to our question, the assumptions of the research are as follows:
It seems that Corona has had a significant impact on rural production, business environment, villagers' debt, the amount of working capital and the amount of migration in the rural areas of Zahedan city.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
While the world is struggling with the corona virus epidemic, the economic effects of this virus are becoming more evident day to day. The initial estimate indicated that if the virus becomes a global pandemic, most of the world's major economies will lose at least 2.4% of their GDP value during 2021. Currently, the leading economists predict that the global economic growth will be 2.4 to 3 percent less than the previous estimates. For a more realistic understanding of these numbers, it should be said that the current global GDP is estimated at 86.6 trillion US dollars. In this case, the 2.4 reduction in economic growth will be something equivalent to 2 trillion dollars. However, these predictions were made before Covid-19 became a global pandemic and before widespread restrictions on social contact were implemented to stop the virus epidemic.
From the point of view of economics, the economic damage caused by the epidemic of Covid-19 is largely due to the decrease in demand, which means that there is no consumer to buy the goods and services available in the global economy. This impact can be clearly seen in affected industries such as airlines and tourism. Countries have imposed travel restrictions to slow the spread of the virus, and many people are unable to use airlines for vacations or business trips. This decrease in consumer demand causes, despite the obvious danger that the world economy is in, there are also reasons based on which we can hope to avoid such pessimistic scenarios. Governments have learned from previous crises that the effects of recession caused by demand can be countered by increasing government spending. As a result, many governments, while increasing the monetary well-being of their citizens, try to facilitate the access of various businesses to the required financial resources so that they do not face problems in keeping their employees during the disease epidemic. In addition, the specific nature of this crisis can have positive effects on sectors such as tourism, food retailing, and health care, and generate some economic growth to compensate for the damage.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of practical purpose and in terms of the nature and method of doing the work, which is carried out by two methods: library study and field survey. In the descriptive study section, the library method has the main application because the theoretical foundations of research and research on the subject of the research can only be done by reviewing the existing and documented studies and researches. The statistical population of the research consists of the rural households of Zahedan city, due to the dispersion of the villages and their large number, 20 villages were randomly selected as sample villages, according to the census of 2015, these villages have a total of 4456 households equal to it had a population of 18.365 people, and 354 people were selected as a sample by using the Cochran formula. In order to collect research data, a researcher-made questionnaire was used, whose face validity was confirmed by professors and experts related to the relevant rural economy.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Our results show that the significance level for all variables is less than 0.01, which indicates that the results can be generalized to the entire statistical population. The obtained beta value shows the greater impact of Corona on economic indicators. The results of the test show that Corona has the greatest impact on the business space variable with a beta coefficient of -0.398 and the least impact on the migration variable with a beta coefficient of 0.147.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
In examination of the status of economic indicators in the studied villages, it showed that all five indicators of rural production, business environment, working capital, villagers' debt and migration were evaluated at an unfavorable level. In examination of the effects of the corona virus epidemic on the economic indicators of rural households in Zahedan city, the results showed that the corona virus epidemic has the greatest impact on the variable of business environment and the least impact on the variable of migration. Also, the corona virus epidemic has an effect on the variable of rural production and working capital.
One of the investigated variables is the increase in villagers' debt. The increase in the debt of the villagers is one of the problems that shows its effects with the closure of industries and businesses. Therefore, the government should prevent the increase in the debt of the villagers by providing suitable solutions. For example, in Lithuania, the government helps people who need help during quarantine and public shutdown through a coordinating center. In this regard, people in rural areas can be supported through programs such as granting interest-free loans and participating in their repayment.
تبلیغات
