بازنمایی هویت قومی در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری دوره های نهم و یازدهم؛ مورد مطالعه: آذربایجان شرقی، کردستان و کهکیلویه و بویراحمد (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش بررسی تفاوت پذیری میزان آرای کاندیداهای نهمین و یازدهمین دوره انتخابات ریاست جمهوری ایران برمبنای موضع گیری های قومیتی آنها در استان های آذربایجان شرقی، کردستان و کهگیلویه و بویراحمد است. پژوهش به روش تحلیل محتوا از نوع کمی است، واحد تحلیل، بیانیه ها، موضع گیری ها، شعارها و سخنرانی های مرتبط با سه قوم ( ترک، کرد و لر) از سوی کاندیدای دوره های دوره های نهم و یازدهم ریاست جمهوری در روزنامه های شرق، اطلاعات ، رسالت و وطن امروز است. یافته ها: یافته های تجربی نشان داد که بین میزان آرای کاندیداها و تعلق قومی آن ها رابطه معناداری وجود دارد. اما در مورد رابطه بین بازنمایی شعارهای قومی توسط کاندیداها و میزان رأی آن ها یافته ها بیانگر این واقعیت بود که صرف شعارهای قومی به تنهایی نمی توانند در میزان رأی کاندیداها مؤثر واقع شوند بلکه علاوه بر شعارهای قومی وابستگی کاندیدای مذکور به یک جناح یا تفکر خاص نیز مهم است. همچنین میزان بازنمایی شعارهای قومی در متن های تولیدشده توسط کاندیداهای دوره نهم 11/31 درصد و در متن های کاندیداهای دوره یازدهم 89/68 درصد می باشند. میزان بازنمایی تعلق قومی در متن های تولیدشده توسط کاندیداهای دوره نهم 93/26 درصد و در متن های کاندیداهای دوره یازدهم 07/73 درصد هست.Representation of Ethnic Identity in the 9th and 11th Presidential Elections in Iran: A Case Study of East Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad
Introduction Iran is a vast country situated in a strategically significant region of the Middle East. Within its borders, a diverse array of ethnic, cultural, and religious groups coexist. A crucial aspect of Iran’s internal dynamics pertains to the formulation of ethnic policies aimed at fostering an inclusive unity and cohesion among its populace, all the while preserving and celebrating the richness of its cultural and ethnic diversity in line with the country’s objectives and ideals. Today, the formulation of ethnic policies has become an exceedingly vital and indispensable matter due to a number of factors, including the rise of micro and sub-national discourses and the need to regulate their interactions with the political system, government, and national identity; the proliferation of ethnic and religious groups in various countries and particularly in neighboring states; and the prominence of ethnic and tribal identities. Limiting the sphere of influence, authority, and acceptance of a shared collective identity, these developments are accompanied not only by the presence of influential international and regional factors and actors but also by gaps in ethnic identities. It is thus necessary to formulate ethnic policies in the country. A significant segment of Iran’s population comprises ethnic, local, and regional tribes and subcultures, whose inclinations, attitudes, and actions hold great importance across various social, cultural, and political domains in the country. The election is considered a key domain with the high frequency of occurrence in Iran. In this respect, the relationship and activities of ethnic groups during election periods represent a significant topic for study and investigation. The areas of interest include the degree and nature of participation of ethnic groups and their behavior towards a particular candidate or political party in the election. The participation in elections actually serves as a stable indicator of political participation. In Iran, ethnic groups perceive their participation in elections as playing a social–identity role in political dynamics. As candidates vie for as many votes as possible during their election campaigns, they engage in election campaigns characterized by slogans and the presentation of plans and promises. Meanwhile, in the institutionalized and conventional opportunity offered by elections, voters and citizens form their opinions concerning the desired choice by listening to and comparing candidates’ plans, programs, and policies. In a study conducted by Agumore and Adams (2014) in Ghana, the examination of 17 influential factors on voting behavior revealed that candidates’ electoral messages had the most significant impact on voters, while the candidate’s ethnicity proved to be one of the least influential factors. This suggests that the stance and programs advocated by candidates play a crucial role in motivating voters to support them. Alwan (2020) studied the tribal power in Iraq and its implications for the political and social system. The findings demonstrated that a weak and corrupt government contributes to the encouragement of tribal dominance. The Iraqi people, regardless of their personal beliefs, are strongly attached to their tribes. Despite recognizing that tribes are pre-state organizations and a distorted form of civil society, they perceive no viable alternative due to the inability of the weak state to establish law and order. Akbari and Fakhari (2016) explored the influence of ethnicity and ethnic identity on the electoral behavior of citizens in Bojnurd. The research involved 367 participants from diverse ethnic groups. The results revealed an ethnic voting pattern score of 34.7 on a scale of 0 to 100. Additionally, the average ethnic identity score among the respondents was 58.6. The findings of the study indicate a significant relationship between ethnic voting patterns and variables such as ethnic demands, the sense of political legitimacy, and ethnic identity, as demonstrated by the multivariable regression model. According to Tabiee et al. (2022), there are numerous paradoxes, contradictions, and conflicts between political tribalism and the development in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad. The research suggests that an increase in the tendency towards political tribalism leads to a decrease in development in the province. However, the development and progress of society can mitigate the effects of political tribalism, potentially leading to its dissipation. Materials and Methods The present research used the method of content analysis for data collection. The method involves gathering empirical evidence by enquiring text units rather than directly surveying individuals. In content analysis, the primary unit of observation is the text itself. Concerning the present study, the researchers selected texts on the candidates’ speeches presented in various sources, including newspapers such as Ettela'at, Shargh, Resalat, and Vatan-e Emrouz, as well as the candidates’ speeches during visits to East Azarbaijan, Kurdistan, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad. The researchers also considered the coverage of these speeches in the aforementioned newspapers or locally relevant websites. Additionally, televised elections debates, particularly those focusing on cultural themes, were included in the analysis. Results and Discussion Relying on empirical evidence, the study analyzed and compared ethnic slogans and ethnic belonging in the 9th and 11th presidential elections. According to the results, the representation of ethnic slogans stands at 31.11%t in the texts produced by candidates during the 9th election, whereas during the 11th election, the figure increased significantly to 68.89%. Moreover, the representation of ethnic belonging was found to be 26.93% and 73.07% in the texts produced by the candidates during the 9th and 11th elections, respectively. These findings indicate that candidates during the 11th period placed considerable emphasis on ethnic issues, delving more deeply into these matters. They made concerted efforts to attract the votes of ethnic groups by highlighting ethnic concerns and giving significant attention to these issues in their campaign texts and speeches. As a result, the candidates who had prioritized ethnic issues could receive a larger share of votes in the aforementioned provinces. Conclusion According to the research findings, it can be concluded that there was a significant increase in the representation of slogans and ethnic belonging by candidates during the 11th election compared to the 9th term. The candidates put a special focus on ethnic issues in their speeches and campaign texts. Among the candidates in both elections, Hassan Rouhani stands out for emphasizing ethnic issues more than others. His receiving notable and substantial votes in these provinces, particularly in Kurdistan, indicates his special attention to this category. The research findings, particularly in the 11th election, indicate that addressing ethnic slogans and belonging and highlighting them in presidential campaigns can effectively increase candidates’ votes in provinces with a significant ethnic population. However, regarding the reasons behind the heightened attention to ethnicity and repetition of past issues by the candidates in the 11th election, it is suggested that the demands and needs of ethnic groups had not been adequately addressed in previous elections. Alternatively, it is possible that the repetition of past issues is merely a strategy to secure votes, with candidates failing to address these demands even after winning the election, thus treating them merely as a means to an end.
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