Yurii Myskin

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the fiscal role of the excise tax by studying its information and functional potential and to model the dynamics of its payment by the brewing industry. Excise tax occupies a special place in a tax system of each state because, in addition to significant fiscal importance, it has a considerable regulatory impact on the production and consumption of certain categories of goods. Based on information systems in the article analyses and monitors the indicators of the excise tax payments on goods produced in Ukraine on the example of a particular enterprise in the brewing industry. By means of the initial data analysis of autocorrelation functions of volumes’ indicators of the accrued excise taxes on beer the expediency of modelling realization of such indicator dynamics on the basis of ARIMA model is proved. The analytical and statistical approaches to the formation of models for the implementation of forecast for the calculation of excise tax on beer of brewing industry enterprises are improved. The proposed approach is based on the values of autocorrelation of balances and partial autocorrelation, as well as methods of analysis of time series with gaps, which allows to use it in the economic activity of enterprises to make forecasts for the calculation and payment of the excise tax. This will produce financial effects for the brewing industry in terms of cost optimization and minimization of the excise tax risks.