Investment Project Risk Simulation on the Use of Information Technologies as a Factor for Improving the Financial Safety of the Enterprise(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزه های تخصصی:
The article justified the feasibility of an investment project by analysing the performance indicators while taking into account risk and uncertainty of the use of information technologies. The impact of the above calculations of the investment project results is due to the fact that the evaluation of the investment performance depends on the projected cash flows. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of risks on making investment decisions using information technologies in order to increase the financial security of enterprises. Methodological and practical aspects of risk modelling of the investment project were further developed, using the Monte Carlo method, which allows to construct a model by minimizing data, as well as to maximize the value of data used in the model. This model involves the use of probability theory and random number tables. The results show the distribution of probabilities of the successful project variable and the coefficient of variation of the performance indicator, allowing the investor to take uncertainty into account when making a decision.