Sergii Zakharin

The article presents the results of studies on the development of new statistical and econometric approaches to modeling budget policy. The obtained results are applied on the example of tax revenue modeling. Accounting for various factors, including through the use of mathematical methods, will allow you to plan reforms with a scientific position. In particular, this is especially true in connection with the introduction of multi-year budget planning. To identify the main threats to the tax base, the phenomenon of “tax passes” wasused, which is based on an assessment of the effectiveness of a tax credit. The main participants in the formation of the “gross gap” in the value added tax revenues in Ukraine are shown. A correlation and regression analysis of the natural logarithms of the gross domestic product and tax revenues is carried out. This allowed us to determine the elasticity of tax revenues and GDP in Ukraine. A change in GDP directly affects the amount of tax payments to the budget, and the rate of change of indicators is proportional and changes insignificantly. These results allow us to strategically model the reform of discretionary tax policy mechanisms based on a quantitative assessment of tax gaps and the elasticity of tax payments. The authors were able to substantiate some proposals for reforming the budget policy regarding tax revenues.

Regional planning is an important element of the mechanism of market transformation in the economy of the region based on information technology management. The content of the plans is largely determined by the scenario of its development. However, it is necessary to determine the specifics of organizational support and the choice of a scenario for market transformation at the mesoscale. The objective of the research is to determine the specifics of organizational support and choose a scenario for market transformation at the mesoscale. Based on a study of the results of the implementation of the scenario of economic development, the main causes and trends of the regional economy are identified, and regulatory measures in the region are proposed. On the example of the regions of Ukraine, three possible scenarios of the scenario were formed in the near future: innovative, raw, paternalistic. The main criteria for all scenarios is the development of energy-saving technologies; the formation of a middle class that will ensure the modernization of social infrastructure, the development of education and health care, the improvement of the environment, the creation of an effective housing and communal economy and the beginning of the movement towards civil society.