اثرات سرریزهای فناوری حاصل از واردات بر روی متغیرهای اقتصادی و زیست محیطی (کاربرد الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چند منطقه ای) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: رشد و توسعه اقتصادی بدون بهره گیری از مواهب فناوری امری بعید و دور از دسترس به نظر می رسد. در واقع فناوری عامل تعیین کننده سطح رشد پایدار و همسو با محیط زیست و توسعه اقتصادی محسوب می گردد. هدف از نگارش این مقاله بررسی اثرات سرریزهای فناوری حاصل از واردات بر روی متغیرهای اقتصادی و زیست محیطی است. روش: در این مطالعه جهت نیل به هدف مقاله از یک الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چند منطقه ای استفاده شده است. کالیبراسیون بر اساس داده های پایه سال 2014 و مقادیر پارامتری که از نسخه 10 پایگاه داده GTAP استفاده شده است. یافته ها: نتایج حاصل از شبیه سازی الگو حاکی از آن است که کاهش تعرفه کالاهای وارداتی شدت کربن، شدت انرژی و نرخ رشد کل انتشار کربن را در ایران کاهش داده و موجب کاهش آلودگی در کشور شده است. از سوی دیگر با کاهش تعرفه کالاهای وارداتی نرخ تورم، تقاضای انرژی و همچنین تولید ناخالص داخلی کاهش یافته اند که ضریب نرخ تورم و میزان کاهش آن قابل ملاحظه بوده است. نتیجه گیری: در این مقاله تلاش گردیده با شبیه سازی مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چند منطقه ای، اثرات زیست محیطی و اقتصادی کاهش تعرفه واردات از کشورهای توسعه یافته و درحال توسعه برای کشور ایران مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. با توجه یافته های این تحقیق پیشنهاد می گردد توجه شود ورود هر نوع فناوری به کشور چه اثراتی می تواند در کوتاه مدت، میان مدت و بلندمدت براقتصاد و محیط زیست داشته باشد. بطور کلی با بررسی این موارد تصمیم گرفته شود که آیا یک کالا در داخل کشور تولید شود یا بصورت واردات از سایر کشورها وارد گردد.The Effects of Technology Spillovers from Imports on Economic and Environmental Variables (Using Multi-Regional Computable General Gquilibrium Model)
Objective: The flow of technology spillovers to countries has been noticed in the last few decades because these spillovers lead to the increase of knowledge, transfer of technology and creation of competitive advantage. In recent decades, developing countries have established various laws and commercial policies with regard to various theories in the field of foreign trade. Our country is also one of the developing countries that needs to achieve optimal business policies for economic growth while preserving the environment. One of the ways to achieve this is to pay attention to the important issue of trade and sustainable development, which can be done by importing capital goods as well as importing technology and exporting industrial and consumer goods. In the meantime, it is very important to pay attention to trade policies on the one hand, as well as pay attention to the countries that are chosen as Iran's trading partners, because in the first case, the optimal tariff rate can determine the conditions for entry into global markets and also the entry of technology into make the country smooth and also in the discussion of trade and commercial policies, it is important that our business partner is selected in such a way that he can advance Iran's commercial policies in line with sustainable development policies. In the current research, we are looking for the effect of technology spillovers resulting from imports on economic and environmental variables with a multi-regional calculable general equilibrium approach. To investigate this issue, this article consists of 6 sections. After the introduction, in the second part, the theoretical foundations of technology spillovers, commercial policies, and its economic and environmental aspects have been investigated. The third part is dedicated to the research background and review of domestic and foreign studies. In the fourth part, the research method and data are examined. Section 5 analyzes the results of the implementation of the research model, and finally, conclusions and policy suggestions are presented.Method: The model used is a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE). One of the types of general equilibrium models is the multi-regional model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E), which will be used for simulation in this study. Using multi-regional general equilibrium models instead of single-regional general equilibrium models has several advantages. One of the strengths of these models is their ability to help understand the link between sectors, countries and production factors on a global scale. The structure of these types of models states that all the components of the global economy are located in networks of direct and indirect links with each other. Therefore, any change that occurs in one of the components of the system will have consequences for all sectors, regions and countries. The consumption demand functions of the government are derived using a Cobb-Douglas utility function in which the cost share of different goods is fixed. Companies use intermediate goods and primary inputs to produce goods and services, and by combining these factors, they produce all kinds of goods and services. All factors except land and natural resources have full mobility among different sectors. Every department or company in the economy produces a set of goods. These goods are sold inside and outside each region. The assumption of perfect competition and constant returns to scale is established in the production of all goods and also in all markets. Real values, including the production of all sectors, the demand of factors, export, import and also all prices are determined in the framework of the model. It can be seen that all parts are similar to the GTAP model and the only difference between the GTAP-E model and its basic form is the energy factor and the inclusion of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels by Burniaux and Truong (2002). which provides the possibility to evaluate environmental policies.Results: The scenario considered as the base scenario in this model is a 10% reduction in the import tariff on all imported goods. In this scenario, three areas are defined. The first region of Iran, the second region of northern countries, which means imports from developed countries, and the third region of southern countries, which includes imports from developing countries. The implementation of the scenario of 10% reduction in the tariff of imported goods from developed and developing countries to Iran has led to a decrease in the total growth rate of carbon emissions by 0.7276% in Iran. The results of this variable for developed and developing countries are 0.0002 percent and 0.0050 percent, respectively. As can be seen, a stronger effect on carbon emissions is observed in southern countries. Further, the results show that the reduction of the tariff has caused a decrease in carbon intensity by 0.6587 percent. that the effects of this scenario in developed countries decreased by 0.0010% and in developing countries increased by 0.0049%. In the section of economic variables, it can be seen that the effect of a 10% reduction in tariffs on imported goods leads to a 0.0692% reduction in the gross domestic product of Iran, while the same scenario has a positive effect on the gross domestic product of developed countries, and for developing countries, approximately It is close to zero. On the other hand, the reduction in the tariff of imported goods has reduced the amount of energy demand in Iran by 0.4558%, and the results of this variable for developed and developing countries were incremental.Conclusion: According to the results obtained, with the reduction of tariffs on imported goods, the total carbon emission rate has decreased. that the reason for this decrease can be investigated in two sectors of production and consumption, so that in the consumption sector, the increase in the import of goods due to the reduction in the tariff rate and the decrease in the price of foreign goods compared to domestic goods causes the loss of a part of the domestic market for domestic producers and ultimately the reduction of energy production and demand inside Iran. But in the production sector, considering the higher level of production technology in developed countries and some developing countries, including China, compared to Iran, the reduction of tariffs on imported goods leads to the import of more intermediate goods with higher technology and lower energy consumption. Iran, and following that, production in the country will be associated with lower energy consumption and less carbon emissions. The economic indicators that have been investigated in this research are gross domestic product, inflation rate and energy demand. The coefficient of GDP shows that the reduction of tariffs on imported goods reduces the amount of GDP by 0.0692%, which can be due to the decrease in domestic production caused by the non-competitiveness of domestic goods compared to imported goods that the consumer Domestic prefers foreign goods with higher technology. Also, it can be seen that the impact of the reduction of import tariffs on the GDP of developed countries is more than that of developing countries, and the reduction of import tariffs has led to a decrease in energy demand in Iran, which is caused by the decrease in domestic production and the import of intermediate goods. It is with newer technology to Iran.
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