طراحی الگوی ظرفیت ریسک پذیری سرمایه گذاران حقیقی با رویکرد داده بنیاد (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: هدف این پژوهش ارائه نظریه ظرفیت ریسک پذیری سرمایه گذاران حقیقی حاضر در بازار سرمایه ایران با رویکرد داده بنیاد است. روش: تحقیق حاضر ازنظر نوع روش، تحقیق آمیخته محسوب می گردد. به منظور گردآوری داده ها در بخش کیفی از مصاحبه های نیمه ساختاریافته استفاده شد، سپس داده های کیفی از طریق بررسی پیشینه تحقیق کامل گردید و در مرحله دوم داده های کمی گردآوری و مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. به منظور مدل سازی از نسخه اشتراوس و کوربین در رویکرد داده بنیاد استفاده شد. برای سنجش روایی از روایی محتوا، واگرا و همگرا و برای پایایی از روش آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شده و همگی تأیید شدند. یافته ها: در این فرایند، 52 مفهوم و 29 مقوله ایجادشده و در غالب 6 محور تئوری داده بنیاد گروه بندی شدند. در بخش اعتبارسنجی کمی مدل، از روش مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری استفاده شد.بر اساس تحلیل داده های پرسش نامه، باتوجه به عدم نرمال بودن توزیع داده ها، از روش حداقل مربعات جزیی به کمک نرم افزار اسمارت پی ال اس نسخه 2، مدل تحقیق آزمون شده و مورد تأیید قرار گرفت.نتیجه گیری: نتایج تحقیق نشان داد مقوله دانش سرمایه گذاری در بعد شرایط علی، مقوله شغل و تخصص و میزان درآمد فرد سرمایه گذار در بعد شرایط مداخله گر، متغیرهای نرخ ارز، نرخ تورم، نرخ بهره بانکی، نرخ سود سپرده در بعد شرایط زمینه ای، توانایی اندازه گیری ارزش آتی سهام در بعد پدیده محوری، تعیین استراتژی سرمایه گذار در بعد راهبردها و انتخاب سبد سهام دارای P/E کمتر از P/E بازار در بعد پیامدها به عنوان تأثیرگذارترین متغیرها بر ظرفیت ریسک پذیری سرمایه گذاران حقیقی تعیین شدند.Designing A Risk-Taking Capacity Model of Individual Investors Using Grounded Theory
Objective: Due to the expansion of the capital market in the past years and the people's unique acceptance of this market, behavioral financial studies of individual investors have become more important. The complexity of the decision-making process has caused any decision to be influenced by the Attributes of each investor. Risk-taking capacity is one of the most important components that is a function of the decision maker's Attributes. This study seeks to empirically identify the factors affecting the risk-taking capacity of investors. So far, few researches have been done regarding the risk-taking capacity of individual investors in the capital market, and there is little information about the behavior of investors in this field. Therefore, there is a significant gap in this field and this study helps to fill this gap in the literature by identifying the factors affecting the risk-taking capacity of individual investors. We in this study aimed to find, what determines how much risk investors take in the capital market? Went on this way that Using the opinions of experts, present the risk-taking capacity of investors in Iran's capital market of the grounded theory approach. Method: The personality trait criterion consists of five specific personality attributes, including agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism (emotional instability), extraversion, and openness to experience. In this study, we used a quasi-experimental design and a post-event approach. To test the hypotheses, we used a structural equations model (version 3 of Smart PLS software). Results: In this process, 52 concepts and 29 open codes were created and were grouped in the main 6 axes of the grounded theory. Based on the analysis of the questionnaire data, due to the lack of software distribution, the research model was tested and confirmed by the partial least squares method with the help of SmartPLS version 2 software.All the interviewees, equivalent to 100, have mentioned the five variables including the personality of the investor, the company situation, the conditions of the micro and macro economy, the Investor's knowledge status and the technical analysis of stocks and markets. Also, the category of investor personality, in addition to the number of repetitions of the codes, in terms of generality and comprehensiveness among the respondents, was also a priority, which shows the importance of this category. The categories of attributes of online transactions (including ease of access and lack of restrictions) with 5 repetition codes and social conditions (including the concepts of the impact of social welfare, social security, social responsibility, ethnicity and geographical region) with 7 repetition codes had the lowest percentage of frequency and generality. Conclusion: The analysis of the collected data in terms of frequency indicates that the categories of investor personality (including investor's emotional biases and investor's cognitive biases) with the number of 162 repetitions of the code is ranked first, company situation (including liquidity situation, industry situation, company efficiency, company profitability, structural condition and company size) with the number of codes 119 is ranked second, micro and macro economic conditions with the number of codes 78 is ranked third, the situation of investor knowledge (including the three concepts of having investment knowledge, having financial literacy and having the knowledge of reading stock charts) ranked fourth with 73 codes and technical analysis of stocks and markets ranked fifth with 70 codes.Finally, the paradigm model was categorized into 6 main dimensions of causal conditions, intervening, contextual, central phenomenon, strategies and consequences.The most important influencing factors in each dimension on the risk-taking capacity of individual investors were determined as follows:In the dimension of causal conditions, in the order of a) variable of investment knowledge of the investor b) trust of investors to the market c) having financial literacy d) Being aware of market psychology.In the dimension of intervening conditions, a) the variables of job and expertise and the amount of income of the investor and b) the variable of self-management of the investor.Next, the background conditions, a) variables: exchange rate, inflation rate, bank interest rate and deposit interest rate, b) global price variables and the occurrence of wars in the world and c) attention to political conditions and the effects of sanctions.In the dimension of the central phenomenon, a) variable of technical analysis of the whole market, b) technical analysis of stocks and c) knowledge of fundamental analysis.In terms of strategies a) determining the strategy in the three axes of analytical strategy, time strategy and investment resources strategy, b) simultaneous use of fundamental variables and technical models and charts to predict the future, c) the ability to predict the future and readiness to face it and d) having the power of patience and tolerance to create change and achieve results.In terms of consequences, a) choosing the optimal portfolio, including choosing the best companies in the best industries, b) choosing a portfolio (basket) of stocks with a P/E lower than the market P/E, and c) determining the return expected by the investor.
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