بررسی و تبین عوامل مؤثر بر تصمیم گیری های متفاوت سرمایه گذاران در ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: تصمیم گیری انتخاب یک گزینه از بین چندین گزینه است. هر تصمیم می تواند ابعاد و نتیجه منحصر به فردی برای هر سرمایه گذار داشته باشد. سرمایه گذاران در موقعیت های یکسان و گوناگون تصمیم های متفاوتی اتخاذ می کنند. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تصمیم گیری های متفاوت سرمایه گذاران در ایران است.روش: این پژوهش با استفاده از طرح توصیفی- همبستگی و بکارگیری فرآیند مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری انجام شد. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل استادان دانشگاه، کارشناسان مالی، مدیران مالی، مدیران شرکت های بورسی و غیر بورسی به خصوص شرکت های سرمایه گذاری، سرمایه گذاران حقیقی در کل کشور بودند که تعداد 390 نفر از آنها با روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده از طریق پرسش نامه به صورت حضوری و آنلاین انتخاب گردید. به منظور گردآوری داده ها از ابزار پرسشنامه و برای آزمون فرضیه ها از مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری در دو بخش ارزیابی مدل اندازه گیری و ارزیابی مدل ساختاری استفاده شد.یافته ها: یافته های پژوهش نشان داد متغیرهای منافع، منابع مالی، قابلیت های ذهنی، اهداف، اطلاعات، تعامل و نحوه تجزیه و تحلیل در سطح خطای 5 درصد بر تصمیم گیری های متفاوت سرمایه گذاران تأثیر معناداری دارند.نتیجه گیری: نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد برای پیش بینی انتخاب هر سرمایه گذار، منافع به عنوان موتور محرک، منابع به مانند موقعیت، ساختار ذهنی عصبی به عنوان سیستم، اهداف به مانند ابزار، اطلاعات به مانند خوراک، تعامل به عنوان تسهیلگر، تحلیل به عنوان رویکرد عمل می کند. با توجه به نتایج این پژوهش پیشنهاد می گردد نهاد تصمیم گیرنده در کشور، به تصمیم گیری سرمایه گذاران توجه بیشتری داشته باشد، چرا که هر تصمیم، اثرات اقتصادی متفاوتی بر هر گروه ذینفع خواهد داشت. بنابراین بهتر این است که نهاد تصمیم گیرنده از رویکرد تعاملی برای موضوعات سرمایه گذاری استفاده کند.Examining and Explaining the Influencing Factors on the Different Decisions of Investors in Iran
Objective: Decision making is choosing one option from among several options. Every decision can have unique dimensions and results for every investor. Investors make different decisions in the same and different situations. The main purpose of the current research is to investigate the factors influencing the different decisions of investors in Iran.Method: This research was carried out using the descriptive-correlation design and using the structural equation modeling approach. The statistical population of the research included university professors, financial experts, financial managers, managers of exchange and non-exchange companies, especially investment companies, real investors in the whole country, of which 390 people were selected by a simple random sampling method through a questionnaire. Face-to-face and online were selected. In order to collect data, a questionnaire tool was used, and structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses in two sections: evaluation of the measurement model and evaluation of the structural model. Results: The findings of the research showed that the variables of interests, financial resources, mental capabilities, goals, information, interaction and the way of analysis have a significant effect on the different decisions of investors at the 5% error level. Conclusion: The results of this research showed that in order to predict the choice of each investor, interests as a driving engine, resources as a situation, neural mental structure as a system, goals as a tool, information as a feed, interaction as a facilitator, analysis as an action approach. he does. According to the results of this research, it is suggested that the decision-making body in the country should pay more attention to investors' decisions, because each decision will have different economic effects on each stakeholder group. Therefore, it is better for the decision-making body to use an interactive approach for investment issues. According to the research results, if we want to explain the different decision making of each person. In other words, let's predict the type of decision of each person, the engine driving the decision in the first criterion is interests. Interests act as the invisible hand in decision making. The interests of each investor state why the decision is made in this way. The second criterion explains the different decision making of financial resources investors. Different sources will put different conditions in front of each person. Without resources, investment decisions will not make sense. The third criterion is the process and mental structures of people. The mental process works like a system. If we consider the inputs the same for everyone, the report or output that is provided for each person will be different because of the different neural mental structure for each person. A different report will have a different decision. The fourth criterion is investment goals. Each target has individual means and methods of slaughter. Knowing the methods and tools can express the goals of an investor. Knowing more and better the methods and tools used by an investor will help in predicting the investment decision. The fifth criterion is the investor's information and awareness process. Information for decision-making plays the role of blood in the human body. When we decrease or increase the flow of information, the quality of decision-making will decrease or increase accordingly. Information is known as the feed for investor decision making. The sixth criterion that should be considered is the interaction of investors. Every investor will consciously or unconsciously be attracted to people who are almost at the same level as him. In other words, every person in his interaction tries to have a relationship with people who do not contradict his economic, cultural and intellectual level to face the challenge. Most people don't like change and try to maintain the current level, so knowing more about the interaction and communication of each investor will make it easier to predict decision making. The last criterion for predicting people's decision-making is the way of analysis. The analysis of each investor can be focused on profit per share, profit sharing, development plan, major shareholders, difference between daily value and intrinsic value, asset structure, debt and equity, operating cash flow, profit quality, financial cost, industry outlook, indicators The macro economy, the perspective of other investors, the security and health of investment, social responsibilities, the members of the board of directors and the CEO, the value chain and production, etc. When we find out the summary index of each investor, we can predict which option will be the decision and choice. According to the results of the research, each investor has different interests compared to other investors, the amount of financial resources can change the decision of each investor, the mental nervous structure of each investor is different from others, investment goals are determined according to the conditions of each investor, each group of special information compared to other groups, each investor has a unique interaction with others, each person's analysis is different from other people. At the end of the time, when the interests, financial resources, intellectual structure, goals, information, interaction and analysis of each investor are different from others, the investment decision of each investor will be different from each other. According to the results, it seems that the way investors make decisions is hierarchical. that the interest component is at the top of the pyramid and the analysis component is at the bottom of the pyramid, when the answer to the challenge of each level of the pyramid is not found, the decision is stopped, the rest of the steps are removed, no decision is made. The decision is implemented when there are no challenges without solutions for all levels. This research has investigated the different decisions made by investors in the capital market of Iran, at first, by using the research literature, the influencing factors on decision-making were discussed based on economic theory, behavioral finance, based on economic theory, investors behaved completely rationally and rationally when making decisions. and they always seek to maximize their profit, but based on behavioral finance, investors have not behaved completely rationally and when making decisions, they often make mistakes due to behavioral strain, these mistakes are caused by people's mental structures, which are the mental conditions and emotions of people, environmental conditions And it will lead to a difference in the decision making of the shareholders. Based on the results of this research, investors generally pay more attention to the benefits component than any other factor in the decision-making process. Benefits are very different compared to other components. This difference shows that interests have more weight in decision-making. Investors attach great importance to the component of interests in decisions. In the second stage, they evaluate financial resources, liquidity, working capital, cash inflow and outflow. Then they model ideas, mentalities, innovation and creativity, theories and theories in mental structures. The objectives of the decision-making matter are clarified. It will be collected from existing and available data and information that have the characteristics of being timely, reliable and verifiable. Investor interacts with people who can facilitate decision making for them. All conditions, leading position and previous steps will be summarized, classified, analyzed and interpreted. Therefore, the decision of each investor is made. According to the results of this research, understanding the way investors make different decisions, which are the most important pillars of this market, will lead to the growth and development of the capital market. Knowing the market elements plays an important role in the capital market process, efficiency, effectiveness and economy in the market will be better as a result in the whole country. On the other hand, knowing how each stakeholder group makes investment decisions will create an interactive approach for the decision-making body in relation to the establishment of laws, regulations, guidelines and instructions that will advance the entire market towards stable and secure growth and development. monitoring process due to the more predictable decision making of each group; It will become easier, more convenient and more effective for both supervisees and supervisors. Also, many behavioral strains will be solved for each group of investors. Investment security will increase for the decision maker. As a result, the amount of investment, production, and employment will increase and sustainable growth and development will be provided.
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