کاربرد شاخص ترکیبی جداسازی- تجزیه مصرف انرژی در بخش های کشاورزی و صنعت ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در دنیای امروز، انرژی نق ش برجس ته ای در زمین ه ه ای مختلف اقتصادی و سیاسی ایفا می کند. نقشی که بسیاری از کشورها را گرفتار اقتصاد تک محصولی و ع وارض ناش ی از آن و برخی دیگر را دچار مشکلات هزینه ای ناشی از افزایش قیمت انرژی نموده و در نگاهی کلان تر، حت ی مناسبات و مناقشات کشورها در س طح ب ین المل ل را مت أثر ساخته است. باتوجه به محدودیت منابع انرژی پایان پذیر و نقش آن در رشد اقتصادی، استفاده بهینه از آن، یک هدف مهم در توسعه اقتصادی هر کشور می باشد. بنابراین شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر تغییرات مصرف انرژی ضروری بوده و این امر مستلزم تجزیه مصرف و بررسی سهم اثرساختاری، تولیدی و شدت انرژی در تغییرات مصرف انرژی است. در مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از شاخص دیویژیای میانگین لگاریتمی (LMDI)، به تجزیه سهم اثرساختاری، تولیدی و شدت انرژی در تغییرات مصرف انرژی بخش های صنعت و کشاورزی و سپس با استفاده از شاخص جداسازی (Decoupling) به بررسی رابطه بین مصرف انرژی و رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی در این دو بخش پرداخته شده است. نتایج تجزیه مصرف انرژی در بخش صنعت نشان داد در بیشتر سال های مورد مطالعه، اثر شدت انرژی و در بخش کشاورزی اثر تولیدی بیشترین نقش را در تجزیه مصرف انرژی داشته است. حالت های مختلف شاخص جداسازی و عوامل مؤثر بر مصرف انرژی در بخش صنعت و کشاورزی می تواند به عنوان شواهدی برای تلاش کشورها، جهت جداسازی قوی و ذخیره انرژی بخش صنعت و کشاورزی مورد استفاده قرار گیرند. پیشرفت تکنولوژی و نوآوری می تواند وابستگی رشد بخش ها به مصرف انرژی را کاهش دهد.Application of the Combined Index, Decomposing-Decoupling of Energy Consumption in the Agricultural and Industrial Sectors of Iran
Introduction In today's world, energy plays a prominent role in various economic and political fields. A role that has plagued many countries with a monopoly economy and its effects, and has left others with costly problems caused by rising energy prices, and in general, even international relations and disputes has made an impact. Accordingly, communities are looking for ways to reduce energy consumption without harming their economic growth. Due to the shortage energy resources and its role in economic growth, its optimal use is an important goal in the economic development of each country. Therefore, it is necessary to know the factors affecting changes in energy consumption, which requires the decomposing of energy consumption into different factors affecting changes in energy consumption. In the present study, the factors affecting energy consumption are analyzed using statistics and information of industry and agriculture sectors during the period 1397-1387 to three factors: structural effect, activity effect and energy intensity effect. The relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth in these two sectors has been studied to determine which factor has the greatest role in energy consumption changes in industry and agriculture and to suggest appropriate policy solutions. Materials and Methods Decomposing Analysis is one of the most widely used approaches in analyzes related to energy consumption and CO2 emissions. It is concluded that one is structural analysis (SDA) and the other is index analysis (IDA). These two analysis techniques are different and each has advantages and disadvantages. The SDA technique is more complex and requires a lot of data. On the other hand, the data-output table is prepared every few years and annual data are not available. Instead, more information and findings are obtained using the SDA technique. The IDA technique is simple and does not require much data. It can be used with big data and does not need the data of any particular department or product. For this reason, the SDA technique has been used more. This study is used the Tapio decoupling index to explain the decoupling status. Decoupling index is the best technique to describe the dependence of economic growth on energy consumption and it is used to discover the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. In the present study, using the Logarithmic Mean Division (LMDI) index, to analyze the factors affecting energy consumption in industry and agriculture and then using the decoupling index to examine the relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth in these two sections are discussed. Results The results of the decomposing of energy consumption from GDP in the industrial sector showed that in most of the studies on the effect of energy intensity in agricultural sector, the effect of production had the greatest role in the decompose of energy consumption from GDP. Conclusion This study examined the decoupling of energy consumption from GDP of the industrial and agricultural sectors and the factors affecting energy consumption for each sector in Iran. The results of decomposition of energy consumption from GDP in the industrial sector showed that in most of the studied years, the effect of energy intensity and in the agricultural sector, the production effect had the greatest role in decomposing energy consumption from GDP. In 2010 and 2016, the production effect had a negative effect on energy consumption and increased energy consumption. In 1394, the index of decoupling of energy consumption from the growth of the agricultural sector was the best and most ideal possible, strong decoupling, and this indicates that the growth rate of the agricultural sector was higher than the growth rate of energy consumption. This year, the effect of energy intensity has had a positive effect on reducing energy consumption. The composite index has not experienced much fluctuation. Different modes of decoupling index and factors affecting energy consumption in industry and agriculture can be used as evidence for countries efforts to strongly decoupling and save energy in industry and agriculture. Advances in technology and innovation can reduce the growth dependence of sectors on energy consumption. Also, attention should be paid to optimizing the economic structure to create economic stability and reach the ideal state of the decoupling index.
تبلیغات
