Transfer Risk

Background and Theoretical Basis: One of the most important concerns of most oil-exporting countries is determining the optimal oil Supply Portfolio (on Sea and Land) because the non-commitment of buyer countries can cause serious damage to the revenue sources of exporting countries due to their high need for oil exports. Methodology: The supply risks are first identified based on the opinion of experts, all of whom are experts in the National Iranian Oil Company, especially in the contracts department, and then weighted using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique. Findings: The major countries importing oil from Iran are then ranked based on weight. Next, the result of this rating is entered into the mathematical programming model. The results of solving the model indicate the optimal oil supply portfolio and the best countries for oil exports are determined accordingly. Conclusion: One of the most important concerns of most oil-exporting countries is determining the optimal oil supply portfolio because the non-commitment of buyer countries can cause serious damage to the revenue sources of exporting countries due to their high need for oil exports. In this study, the optimal oil supply portfolio is selected based on destination country and transfer risks by combining content analysis, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making, and mathematical programming techniques. The proposed model suggests that the optimal oil supply portfolio can be determined. In this way, it is possible to determine how much of the export of petroleum products should be allocated to an importing country according to issues such as cost and risk. The results can be generalized to other industries. Thus, future studies can examine the proposed model for the export of other products, including mineral or agricultural products. In other words, the major importing countries can be determined, and optimal allocation to them can be made based on criteria such as risk and cost.