scenario building

This paper seeks to draw scenarios for the future of the Middle East regional system, and considers the actors in the Middle East regional system as: 1. regional powers; 2. failed states in the region; in this paper the three failed states are mentioned: Iraq, Syria and Yemen, 3. active groups inside the failed states, and 4. interventionist powers, such as the United States and Russia, which intervene from an international level in the regional system of the Middle East. In this regard, the constructive variables of the regional system of the Middle East has been studied which include: the problematic, the boundary, the pole, the anarchy, the interaction pattern, the individual and the structure of the international system. The paper argues that every regional system has the problematic and based on the data obtained, the current problematic at the regional level is the existence of the failed states of Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Hence, it is about examining and identifying other variables surrounding the problematic, and ultimately on whether the objectives and actions of the poles of power in the region on the one hand, and the goals and actions of the superpowers on the international level are in line with the resolution of the problematic or conflicting and contradictory to the problematic, provides scenarios for the variables that shape the regional system, and in particular the regional interaction pattern. Based on these scenarios, the future of Iran's foreign policy can be explained.