Econometric Modeling and Forecasts

The paper focuses on regional trade agreements and economic co-operation and develops a new appropriate approach to study their impact on growth and trade. The approach is based on an endogenous trade-growth theory and novelly specified in an economic integration (expenditure) framework which is the conceptual foundation of regional trade agreements. Importantly, it also appropriately takes into account major add- and sub-factors as recommended by Johansen, the computable general equilibrium pioneer, in practical economic planning and policy modelling. Applications of the approach to China, a key member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement group, are also reported to provide useful insights for suitable evidence-based impact analysis. The analysis has relevance to such trading blocs as BRICS and the 21-member Indian Ocean Rim Association where Iran is a key member. Policy implications from the findings are then briefly discussed.