انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و راهبردهای امنیت انرژی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
انرژی های تجدیدپذیر به تدریج در حال جایگزین شدن با سوخت های فسیلی اند. گذار از منابع تجدیدناپذیر فسیلی به منابع تجدیدپذیر خورشیدی، بادی، زمین گرمایی، زیست توده و... باعث شده است که بخش عمده ای از ساز و کارهای تولیدی، تجاری و مالیِ بازار بین المللی انرژی دستخوش دگرگونی شوند. این دگرگونی نیز به نوبه خود امنیت انرژیِ دولت ها را با تهدیدها و فرصت های جدیدی روبرو ساخته است. بالتبع ایران نه تنها به عنوان یکی از تولیدکنندگان عمده سوخت های فسیلی بلکه به عنوان مصرف کننده انرژی نیز با این تهدیدها و فرصت ها مواجه شده و یا خواهد شد. در اینجا کوشیدیم به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که ایران برای تأمین امنیت انرژی خود در آینده، چه راهبردها و سیاست هایی را در زمینه انرژی های تجدیدپذیر در پیش گرفته است؟ به عبارت دیگر، ایران برای انرژی های تجدیدپذیر چه نقش و جایگاهی در امنیت انرژی خود در آینده قائل است؟ در پاسخ به این پرسش، نخست شاخص های چهارده گانه ای برای سنجش امنیت انرژی مشخص کردیم. سپس تهدیدها و فرصت های ناشی از گذار یاشده در هر کدام از این شاخص ها را شناسایی نمودیم. سپس نشان دادیم که ایران با کدامیک از این تهدیدها و فرصت ها مواجه شده است و یا خواهد شد و به کدامیک از آنها در سیاستگزاری های کلان و اسناد بالادستی خود توجه نشان داده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهند که بیشترین توجه به شاخص های قیمت و شدت مصرف انرژی و کمترین توجه به شاخص های مقبولیت و ثبات سیاسی و تا حدی شاخص استمرار تولید نشان داده شده است. در اینجا از روش های مدلسازی عقلانی-مفهومی، اسنادی و تحلیل محتوای توصیفی استفاده کرده ایم.Renewable Energies and Iran's Energy Security Strategies
Renewable energies are gradually replacing fossil fuels as the primary sources of energy. The transition from non-renewable resources to renewable sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc., has significantly transformed productive, commercial, and financial aspects of the international energy market. This transformation, in turn, has created new challenges and opportunities for energy security of states. Iran, as a major producer of fossil fuels and energy consumer, is also grappling with these challenges and opportunities. Here we aim to answer the question that what strategies and policies Iran has adopted in the field of renewable energies to ensure its future energy security? In other words, what role and position does Iran envisioned for renewable energies in its future energy security? Answering this question requires addressing several sub-questions. First, what is energy security and its components? Second, what opportunities and threats do renewable energies pose to the energy security of states? Third, what is the current status of Iran in terms of energy security indicators, and how does the shift in the energy market from fossil fuels to renewable energies affect Iran's energy security? Fourth, what strategies and policies has Iran specifically adopted in the field of renewable energies to prevent these threats and risks? Fifth, what are the shortcomings of these strategies and policies, and what solutions can be proposed to overcome them? Literature Review The diversity in definitions of energy security has led scholars to propose various indicators for assessing energy security. In Table 1, we attempt to compile all the indicators proposed by researchers in this field. Table 1. Indicators of Energy Security Research examples Indicator Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Yao & Chang, 2014; Chuang & Ma, 2013; Fang, Shi &Yu, 2018; Lixia, 2021 Acceptability 1 Fang, Shi. &Yu, 2018; Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009 Sustainability 2 Karatayev & Hall, 2020; Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017 Demand continuity 3 Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017; Fu &et al, 2021 Environmental sustainability 4 Paravantis, Kontoulis, Ballis, Tsirigotis & Dourmas, 2018; Kruyt , Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009 Supply continuity 5 Kruyt , Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Erahman, Purwanto, Sudibandriyo & Hidayatno, 2016; Fang, Shi &Yu, 2018 Accessibility 6 Azzuni &Breyer, 2018; Szulecki, 2018 Democracy 7 Lee, Xing & Lee, 2022 Distribution of incomes 8 Lin & Raza, 2020; Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017; Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009 Energy import dependency 9 Jewell, Cherp &Riahi, 2014 Diversity of resources 10 Sovacool &Mukherjee, 2011; Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Martchamadol & Kumar, 2013 Estimating resources and Reserve-to-production ratio 11 Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Shah, Zhou, Walasai &Mohsin, 2019; Novikau, 2019 Political stability 12 Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Chuang & Ma, 2013; Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017; Yao & Chang, 2014; Kruyt et al., 2009 Affordability 13 Martchamadol & Kumar, 2013; Dźwigoł, Dźwigoł-Barosz, Zhyvko, Miśkiewicz & Pushak, 2019 Energy consumption intensity 14 Methodology In response to the main research question and using rational-conceptual modeling method, we first identified fourteen indicators for assessing energy security. Then, we identified the threats and opportunities arising from the transition to renewable resources in each of these indicators. Next, with documentary and descriptive content analysis methods, we demonstrated which of these threats and opportunities Iran has faced or will face, and to which of them it has paid attention in its macro-policy-making and high-level documents. Results In Table 2, we categorized the most important threats and opportunities affecting the stability or improvement of Iran's energy security. Table 2. Threats and opportunities of renewable resources for Iran's energy security Threats and opportunities Indicator Change in public perception towards non-renewable resources and domestic and international public opinion pressures Acceptability 1 Positive public perception of renewable resource exploitation Loss of oil and gas resources during production process De-legitimization of governmental oil and gas derivatives consumption methods Utilization of the country's capacity in wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear energy production Sustainability 2 Probable future reduction in oil and gas resources Investment in export of renewable energy Demand continuity 3 Reducing dependency on international oil and gas demand Aggravation of climate crises and increasing pollution of biochemical cycles due to fossil resource production and consumption Environmental sustainability 4 Enhancement of environmental sustainability with renewable resources International sanctions on oil and gas technologies and renewable energy technologies Supply continuity 5 International sanctions on oil and gas sales Development of unconventional oil and gas resources exploitation Global prices increase Decrease in job opportunities in oil and gas industries New job opportunities in renewable energy sector Increased public access to renewable resources to expand local development Accessibility 6 Rentier state and the need to reduce dependency on oil and gas revenues Democracy 7 Reduction in distribution of oil and gas incomes Distribution of incomes 8 Possibility of creating new public revenues through renewable energy sources Increase in the role of other energy sources versus oil and gas Energy import dependency 9 Diversity of resources 10 Relying solely on Estimating resources and reserves volume Estimating resources and Reserve-to-production ratio 11 Social protests due to energy-related issues Political stability 12 Increase in energy carrier prices Affordability 13 Optimizing energy consumption Energy consumption intensity 14 Examining high-level documents of Iran’s energy shows that the greatest attention has been paid to Affordability and Energy consumption intensity indicators, while the least attention has been given to Acceptability and political stability indicators, and to some extent, Supply continuity indicators. Conclusion It seems that understanding the critical situation and deficiencies of Iran's energy security can only be achieved through recourse to the foundations of good governance, particularly good energy governance. Based on a general rule in good governance, such governance entails a tripartite relationship between the government, civil society and stakeholders. However, in high-level energy documents and general energy security policies, two other actors of good governance are absent. Acceptability, political stability, and to some extent, Supply continuity are indicators directly related to these other two kinds of actors. Acknowledgments The authors of this research are grateful to the referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.
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