الگویابی پراکندگی جمعیت در شهرستان های استان هرمزگان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مدل سازی توزیع جمعیت در فضاهای جغرافیایی وظیفه مهمی در شناخت الگوهای جمعیتی محسوب می شود. هدف از پژوهش حاضر الگویابی پراکندگی جمعیت در فضاهای جغرافیایی استان هرمزگان است. این تحقیق بر اساس روش توصیفی- تحلیلی انجام شده و روش کتابخانه ای برای گردآوری داده ها مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. جامعه آماری تحقیق حاضر را متخصصان و اساتید حوزه جمعیت شناسی و جغرافیایی استان هرمزگان تشکیل می دهند. به منظور بررسی و تحلیل الگوهای پراکندگی جمعیت از ضرایب موران گری و نرم افزارهای Excel،SPSS21 و Arc GIS استفاده شده است. نتایج تحلیل الگوی پراکندگی جمعیت در استان هرمزگان نشان دهنده خودهمبستگی فضایی و الگوی خوشه ای شدید است. نتایج تحلیل لکه های داغ در توزیع جمعیت استان هرمزگان نشان دهنده تمرکز لکه های داغ با سطح اطمینان 99 درصد در کل شهرستان قشم بخش جنوبی شهرستان بندرعباس، جنوب رودان شمال میناب و بشاگرد و نیمه غربی شهرستان بستک است. شهر بندرعباس با بیشترین جمعیت، 55.9 % از جمعیت استان را دربر گرفته که نشان دهنده تمرکز جمعیت در مرکز استان است. تجزیه و تحلیل توزیع و پخشایش جمعیت و بررسی وضع تراکم آن در کیلومترمربع در نواحی مختلف شهرستان های استان هرمزگان، ناموزونی شدید توزیع جمعیت در سطح این استان را نشان می دهد. همچنین در استان هرمزگان شاهد عدم تعادل پراکندگی شهرها و روستاها بر اساس فاصله از مناطق ساحلی هستیم. به این معنی که با کاهش فاصله از ساحل، جمعیت شهری بیشتری ساکن هستند. در مقابل، با افزایش فاصله از ساحل، جمعیت و نقاط روستایی بیشتر می شود. به این ترتیب می توان دریافت که پراکنش فضای جمعیتی در استان هرمزگان بسیار نامتوازن بوده و از تعادل فضایی لازم برخوردار نیست.Modeling population dispersion in the geographical spaces of Hormozgan Province
Introduction Modeling population distribution in geographic spaces is an important task in understanding population patterns. The aim of the current research is to find the pattern of population distribution in the geographical spaces of Hormozgan province. This research is based on descriptive-analytical method; A library method was used to collect data. The statistical population of this research includes specialists and professors in the field of demography and geography of Hormozgan province. Moran-Gray coefficients and Excel, SPSS21 and Arc GIS software were used to investigate and analyze population distribution patterns. The results of the analysis of the population dispersion pattern in Hormozgan province show spatial autocorrelation and a strong cluster pattern. The results of analysis of hot spots in the population distribution of Hormozgan province show the concentration of hot spots with a confidence level of 99% in the entire Qeshm city, the southern part of Bandar Abbas city, south of Rodan, north of Minab and Beshagard, and the western half of Bestak city. The city of Bandar Abbas with the largest population has 55.9% of the population of the province, which shows the concentration of the population in the center of the province. The analysis of the population distribution and the study of its density in square kilometers in different areas of the cities of Hormozgan province shows a severe imbalance in the population distribution at the level of this province. Also, in Hormozgan province, we see an imbalance in the distribution of cities and villages based on the distance from coastal areas. This means that as the distance from the coast decreases, more urban population lives, on the other hand, as the distance from the coast increases, the population in rural areas increases. In this way, it can be seen that the distribution of population space in Hormozgan province is very unbalanced and does not have the necessary spatial balance. Materials & Methods This study is an applied and descriptive-analytical research. It is a survey and uses a library method to collect data. The researcher collected data on population statistics and dispersion by referring to the official website of the Population and Statistics Census Center of Iran and the provinces, visiting the provincial governor's office, and the governorates of the city centers of the province. The statistical population of this research is the citizens of the Hormozgan province, experts and specialists in geography, defense, and security. The sample size was selected through the proportional allocation method. Moran Gray coefficients were used to investigate the analysis and impact of population dispersion patterns on national security through software such as Excel, and SPSS21 Arc GIS for statistical analysis and drawing the necessary diagrams. Results & Discussion Hormozgan province with an area of 70.697 square kilometers and a population density of 25.1 people per square kilometer is ranked 26th among other provinces of the country. Qeshm with a density of 59.9 people per square kilometer has the highest density and Beshagard with a density of 4 people per square kilometer has the lowest density among the cities of the Hormozgan province. In the analysis of the population of Hormozgan province, the index value of 0.47 was obtained using the nearest neighbor distance average method for the geographical distribution of the population; Therefore, the population distribution in Hormozgan province has a cluster pattern. The general G statistic, which was used to determine the severity of population clustering, showed high clustering. The results of Moran's statistic also indicate that the population data in Hormozgan province has spatial autocorrelation and has a cluster pattern. Also, the results of analysis of hot spots in the population distribution of Hormozgan province show the concentration of hot spots with a confidence level of 99% in the entire Qeshm city, the southern part of Bandar Abbas city, south of Rodan, north of Minab, Bashagard and the western half of Bastak city. Conclusion Also, in Hormozgan province, we see an imbalance in the distribution of cities and villages based on the distance from coastal areas. This means that as the distance from the coast decreases, more urban population lives, on the other hand, as the distance from the coast increases, the population in rural areas increases. In this way, it can be seen that the distribution of population space in Hormozgan province is very unbalanced and does not have the necessary spatial balance.
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