چشم انداز حضور راهبردی چین در جنوب غرب آسیا و تاثیر آن بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در این پژوهش روش تحقیق آمیخته (کمی - کیفی)، راهبرد تحقیق اکتشافی، افق زمانی آن میان مدت (ده ساله) و جمع آوری داده ها نیز آمیخته (اسنادی - میدانی) است. ابتدا با مطالعه اسنادی و همچنین مصاحبه، 67 پیشران حضور راهبردی چین در 8 مولفه PESTEL+DS (سیاسی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فناورانه، زیست محیطی، حقوقی، دفاعی و امنیتی) به علاوه 7 روند جهانی – منطقه ای شناسایی شد. سپس با پرسشنامه (35 نفر)، اثرگذاری، اهمیت و عدم قطعیت هر یک از پیشران ها مشخص شد (طبق ضریب لاوشه؛ روایی 55 پیشران - روند تایید شده و 19 پیشران - روند روایی مورد نظر را کسب نکردند). در مجموع 22 پیشران - روند اهمیت و عدم قطعیت بالاتر از ارزش آستانه را کسب کردند. با استفاده از آزمون فریدمن، 7 پیشران نهایی انتخاب و حالت های کیفی آنها استخراج شد. در نهایت 4 سناریو با ناسازگاری صفر با پرسشنامه ماتریس، تاثیر متقاطع و نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد ترسیم و تدوین شده و تاثیرات آنها بر امنیت ملی ج.ا.ا مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت.The Prospect of China’s Strategic Presence in Southwest Asia and Its Impact on Iran’s National Security
Introduction Since the late 1970s, China has steadily expanded its power and influence, now reaching beyond East Asia and even the broader Asian continent. As a country’s power increases, its role and position in global and regional relations inevitably follow. In this context, the People’s Republic of China is widely regarded as an emerging powerstriving to solidify its regional position while also enhancing its influence in Southwest Asia. China’s engagement in Southwest Asia has transcended economic and trade activities, evolving into a more multifaceted and complex presence. This region holds strategic importance for China due to its geostrategic position, serving as a critical bridge connecting Central Asia, Europe, and Africa. Leveraging a variety of tools and strategies, China is working to integrate and strengthen its strategic presence in Southwest Asia in line with its national interests. In light of China’s rivalry with the U.S. and the implications of its regional presence for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it becomes essential to analyze the dimensions, mechanisms, and effects of China’s activities in Southwest Asia. Such an examination can provide policymakers with valuable insights to better anticipate future developments and identify both opportunities and threats arising from China’s regional presence. In this respect, the present study aimed to explore the impact of China’s strategic presence in Southwest Asia on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Literature ReviewMany studies address China’s presence and strategy, with some specifically focusing on the Southwest Asia region. These studies explore various aspects of China’s policies, strategies, goals, and requirements for establishing its presence in the region. A review of the existing literature reveals a wealth of related research, much of which examines diverse aspects of China’s activities in Southwest Asia. However, some of these studies are historically outdated and fail to account for the evolution of China’s strategy since 2013, particularly following the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These developments mark a significant shift in China’s regional approach, necessitating the revision and adjustment of certain variables in previous studies. Despite their limitations, these earlier studies are still valuable for shedding light on specific aspects of China’s strategic presence. More recent studies in the field overlap with the current research to varying degrees. Nevertheless, the key innovation and distinguishing feature of the present research lies in its effort to develop and outline possible scenarios of China’s strategic presence in the region. Furthermore, it aimed to assess the impact of these scenarios on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Materials and MethodsThe research onion model, developed by Saunders et al. (2019), is a prominent model for selecting research methodologies in the social sciences and humanities. Melnikovas (2018) adapted the research onion model to align with the field of future studies. The current study relied on Melnikovas’ adaptation of the research onion model. As an exploratory research, the present study used a mixed methods research design with a medium-term time horizon of 10 years. The data was collected through a combination of documentary and field research.Results and Discussion This research aimed to examine the impact of China’s strategic presence in Southwest Asia on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Relying on the interviews and documentary research, the analysis identified 67 driving forces influencing China’s future presence in the region, along with 7 major global-regional trends. Based on these driving forces and trends, a questionnaire was developed and then evaluated by 35 experts. Their validity was confirmed using the Lawshe coefficient for 55 driving forces and trends, while Cronbach’s alpha was used to confirm their reliability. By calculating the geometric mean of 55 driving forces and trends, the significance threshold was determined to be 3.57, while the uncertainty threshold was set at 2.69. Based on the importance–uncertainty method proposed by Martilla and James, 22 driving forces and trends surpassed these thresholds. In the next phase, the Friedman test was used to rank and refine the driving forces, resulting in the selection of 7 key driving forces. The qualitative aspects of these forces were then analyzed, and a cross-impact analysis matrix questionnaire was designed and distributed to 10 experts. The responses were processed using ScenarioWizard software, generating a balanced cross-impact matrix with 4 scenarios, all of which exhibited zero inconsistency. Finally, each scenario was delineated, detailed, and evaluated.Among the four scenarios, the first is the most desirable, the second is moderate and possible, the third is possible, and the fourth represents the worst scenario for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Each scenario carries distinct implications for Iran’s national security. The first scenario, called the Rise of the Dragon, suggests that China’s transit role, investments, and military–security cooperation with Iran will significantly enhance Iran’s national security. The second scenario, namely the Dragon’s Dream, portrays China’s balanced policy to expand interactions with all countries, which could adequately provide Iran’s national security. The most likely scenario, however, indicates limited Chinese investments in the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this scenario, Iran’s role as a corridor will be minimal, functioning primarily as a complement to other countries. Finally, the fourth scenario (i.e., the Dragon in the Cage) would have the most detrimental impact on Iran’s national security. Under this scenario, regional countries would dominate in areas such as investment, energy imports, and military–security cooperation with China. Iran–China relations would be restricted to energy exports and minimal goods imports.ConclusionIn the 10-year horizon, China’s priorities are expected to focus on several key areas. In the economic and technological infrastructure domain, China will work to enhance its influence and investments. In the military–security sphere, China will be prioritize increasing its influence and protecting its assets and national interests. In the social realm, China aims to maintain a positive image and the Chinese discourse, while in the political sphere, it will seek stability and neutrality. These priorities are supposed to have impact on China’s relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and with the broader region.Acknowledgments The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Research Center for Science and Studies of the Holy Defense for providing the resources and support necessary to conduct this research.
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