بررسی سرعت و جهت باد بیشینه در ایستگاه های همدیدی شرق دریاچه ارومیه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با توجه به اهمیت باد از دیدگاه مخاطرات و پتانسیل های آن، بررسی این موضوع موردتوجه محققان کشورهای مختلف است. استان آذربایجان شرقی در شرق دریاچه ارومیه و یکی از مناطق بادخیز کشور قرار دارد و به علت هم جواری با بستر نمکی حاصل از خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه، در معرض مخاطرات زیست محیطی و بهداشتی است. در این تحقیق سرعت، روند تغییرات و جهت باد بیشینه 16 ایستگاه همدیدی واقع در شرق دریاچه ارومیه در دوره 1401-1394 بررسی شد. برای تعیین روند تغییرات سرعت باد از آزمون ناپارامتری من- کندال و تخمین گر شیب سن و برای بررسی جهت باد از نمودار گلباد استفاده شد. مطابق نتایج، تغییرات سرعت باد بیشینه فقط در دو ایستگاه شبستر و سهند به ترتیب با شیب 089/0+ و 070/0+ روند افزایشی معنی دار و در ایستگاه های تبریز، ملکان و مراغه به ترتیب با شیب 058/0، 037/0- و 092/0- روند کاهشی معنی دار داشت و در ایستگاه های کلیبر، میانه، جلفا، بستان آباد، بناب و سراب بدون روند بود. مطابق نمودارهای گلباد، در اکثر ایستگاه ها جهت باد غالب از سمت غرب و جنوب غربی است که این موضوع می تواند در آینده موجب افزایش بیماری های تنفسی در اثر طوفان های نمکی برخاسته از بستر خشک دریاچه ارومیه در استان های شرقی آن شود. به طورکلی علت این امر می تواند مرتبط با گرادیان فشار با توجه به توپوگرافی و وجود ارتفاعات کوه سهند در منطقه، اصطکاک سطحی با توجه به مشخصات جغرافیایی، کاربری اراضی و وجود ساختمان ها در مناطق شهری و دیگر عوامل جغرافیایی مرتبط با این مسئله باشد. فراوانی بادهای شدید در همه ایستگاه ها زیاد بوده و بیش از %50 از بادهای بیشینه در همه ایستگاه ها سرعتی بیش از m/s 11/11 دارند. اگرچه نتایج این تحقیق لزوم توجه به آسیب پذیری مناطق شرقی دریاچه ارومیه از نظر مخاطرات محیطی را نشان می دهد، ولی از دیدگاه انرژی، نشانگر پتانسیل مناسب این منطقه برای تولید انرژی بادی است.Investigating the Maximum Wind Speed and Wind Direction of Synoptic Stations in the East of Lake Urmia
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Using wind and converting it into a source of energy has been practiced in many countries since ancient times. On the other hand, weather is the cause of many natural disasters and accidents, and no part of the planet is immune to atmospheric hazards. Strong and intense winds, known as storms, cause significant damage to human living environments every year. Approximately 90% of the world's natural disasters are related to climatic factors. After floods, which account for approximately 35% of these disasters, storms are responsible for about 30% of the damage caused by natural disasters. The level of risk and damage caused by strong winds and storms depends on their direction, intensity, and the geographical location of the region. Considering the importance of wind in terms of its risks and potential, the study of this phenomenon has drawn the attention of researchers worldwide. Due to its arid and semi-arid climate, Iran experiences the negative effects and consequences of wind more than its benefits. East Azarbaijan Province, located east of Lake Urmia, is one of the windy regions of the country. Due to its proximity to the salt bed formed by the drying up of Lake Urmia, the province faces significant environmental and health hazards. By studying the speed and direction of strong winds in this region, management plans can be developed, vulnerability thresholds for structures determined, and resistant designs implemented to reduce resulting damages. The purpose of this research is to investigate the speed and direction of maximum wind and its changes while identifying vulnerable and windy areas east of Lake Urmia.
Material and Methods
This research investigated the speed, changes, and direction of maximum wind at 16 synoptic stations located east of Lake Urmia during the period of 1394–1401. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator were used to determine the trend of wind speed changes. Wind Rose diagrams were used to analyze the prevailing wind direction. All calculations related to data preparation and tests for checking the trend of maximum wind speed were performed using XLSTAT software, and WRPLOT software was used to generate wind diagrams.
Results and Discussion
According to the results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, among the 16 stations investigated in the east of Lake Urmia, significant increasing trends in maximum wind speed changes were observed only at Shabestar and Sahand stations, with Sen's slopes of +0.089 and +0.070, respectively. A significant decreasing trend was observed at Tabriz, Malekan, and Maragheh stations, with Sen's slopes of -0.058, -0.037, and -0.092, respectively. No trend in maximum wind speed changes was observed at Kalibar, Mianeh, Jolfa, Bostanabad, Bonab, and Sarab stations. Based on the Wind Rose diagrams, the prevailing wind direction at most stations is from the west and southwest, which could potentially increase respiratory diseases in the future due to salt storms originating from the dry bed of Lake Urmia affecting the eastern provinces. This pattern is likely related to the pressure gradient influenced by topography, the presence of Sahand mountain heights in the region, surface friction based on geographical characteristics, land use, and urban structures.
At specific stations, the prevailing wind direction was observed as follows: Bonab and Sarab from the west; Ahar, Charoimaq, Mianeh, Tabriz, and Varzeqan from the southwest; Bostanabad, Heris, Malekan, Marand, and Shabestar from the south; Jolfa and Kalibar from the northwest; Maragheh from the east; and Sahand from the west and southwest. The frequency of strong winds was high across all stations, with more than 50% of maximum winds exceeding 11.11 m/s.
Conclusion
The results of this research revealed that the maximum wind speed in the east of Lake Urmia was recorded at Varzeqan and Marand stations, while the lowest values were recorded at Kalibar and Jolfa stations. According to the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator, changes in maximum wind speed at most synoptic stations showed either no trend or a decreasing trend, with significant increasing trends observed only at Shabestar and Sahand stations. Significant decreasing trends were observed at Tabriz, Malekan, and Maragheh stations. The prevailing wind direction at most stations was found to be from the west and southwest. These findings should be considered in structural design, including the orientation of buildings, power plants, and wind turbines. Additionally, they are critical for agricultural planning, such as rain irrigation system design.
The high frequency of strong winds across all synoptic stations underscores the vulnerability of this area to strong winds and storms, highlighting the importance of structural resilience. However, from an energy perspective, the region holds significant potential for wind power generation. Given the necessity of reducing dependence on fossil fuels due to their negative environmental impacts, including climate change, decreased precipitation, rising temperatures, and reduced water resources, utilizing wind power as a clean energy source becomes essential.
One limitation of this research was its focus on the eastern part of Lake Urmia. A broader study encompassing the entire Lake Urmia basin in all directions would provide a more comprehensive understanding of wind speed and direction changes under conditions of Lake Urmia's drying and the expansion of the salt bed. This would enable more precise land-use planning and management strategies for the coming years.
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