تأثیر کووید 19 روی سطح رفاه خانوارهای استان یزد و کرمان: یک تخمین از شاخص رفاه انگل (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: اول اینکه آیا قانون انگل برای دو استان کرمان و یزد تطبیق می کند؟ دوم اینکه آیا کرونا سطح رفاه خانوارهای این دو استان را تغییرداده است؟ روش: تخمین شاخص رفاه انگل با متغیروابسته سهم هزینه غذا و متغیرمستقل هزینه کل خانوار و یک متغیر مجازی با روش حداقل مربعات معمولی با استفاده از داده های درآمد هزینه خانوار مرکز آمار ایران برای سال های 1399-1397. یافته ها: نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد قانون انگل برای دو استان در سال های تخمین صادق است و کرونا رفاه خانوارهای استان کرمان را کاهش داده ولی برای خانوارهای استان یزد سرعت کاهش رفاه نسبت به سال 1397 کمتر شده است. نتیجه گیری: رفاه خانوارهای استان یزد در تمام سال های تخمین کاهشی بوده اما برای خانوارهای استان کرمان از 1397 تا 1398 رفاه افزایش و برای سال 1399 کاهش داشته است.The Effect of Covid 19 on the Level of Welfare of Households in Yazd and Kerman Provinces: An Estimate of the Parasite Welfare Index
Objective: The outbreak of Corona has left different economic effects in different countries, the countries whose income was in the field of tourism have suffered the most, such as the economic effects of Covid-19 include: increasing unemployment in the economy, imposing heavy shocks on the world economy, affected Building global trade and disrupting the balance of global supply and demand, all of which have reduced the growth of the global economy, which will be evident in its effect on the well-being of households. Considering the Corona epidemic in Iran and the unfavorable situation of macroeconomic variables due to international sanctions and the dependence of Iran's economy on oil, as well as the situation of inflationary stagnation in the economy, the severity of the economic effects of this pandemic on Iran's economy has been greater. In this research, the well-being of households in the two tourism provinces of Yazd and Kerman during the outbreak of Corona is specifically discussed. Due to the fact that many households who mainly did not have steady jobs during the Covid era have lost their jobs due to preventive measures or have reduced their working hours, as a result of which the income of these households has decreased and probably the composition of the households' consumption basket has also changed during this period. has found The composition of households' consumption basket is important because the details of the composition of household expenses are a measure for measuring the well-being of households, so that households with higher incomes have a lower share of food expenses. In order to better understand the welfare of households during the outbreak of Covid-19, the raw income-expenditure data (questionnaire) of Iran Statistics Center and the parasite welfare index are used as the first index introduced in the field of household welfare. He reported the estimation results of the parasitic model for the countries of Pakistan, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom and presented the nearly ideal demand system (AIDS) models in two simple and square forms. In general, the articles in this field are classified in the category of empirical studies. First, does the parasite law apply to the two provinces of Kerman and Yazd? Second, has Corona changed the level of welfare of the families of these two provinces?Method: In this article, household income and expenditure data, the summarized file of the Iranian Statistics Center, have been used. Due to the large volume of household data, the variables have been specified with codes, which need to be processed to analyze the variables, and the data processing is done in Stata 14 software. has been taken, for data processing, the questionnaire forms and the structure of the Iranian Statistics Center have been used. The total data processed for this article is 3768 and 3451 urban and rural households for Yazd and Kerman provinces during the period of 2017-2019.Results: The results show that the independent variable for the households of Yazd province has decreased in the estimated years, and therefore the share of food expenses of the households of this province has increased from the total household expenses, which has decreased according to the parasite approach to the welfare of the households of the province. The estimation coefficients show that the intensity of the decrease in 2019 has been slower compared to 2018 and 2017. On the contrary, in Kerman province, the welfare of households has increased from 2017 to 2018, but for 2019 (the year of Corona), their welfare has decreased. In other words, the rate of decline in welfare for households in Yazd province is lower than that of households in Kerman province. These results clearly show that households in Kerman province are more vulnerable to such phenomena than households in Yazd province. in the international health and insurance seminar predicted such a process for Iranian households against epidemics and catastrophic events and provided specific policy recommendations.Conclusion: Corona has undoubtedly affected the economic, financial and monetary behavior of households. In this article, an attempt is made to investigate the law of parasites in Yazd and Kerman provinces, whose spending pattern is similar between urban and rural households for the years 1997-2007, and it shows that the welfare of households has decreased in these two provinces. One of the important reasons for this decrease is the closeness of the urban household pattern of the two provinces to the rural households. In fact, the welfare level of Iranian households is very fragile. In order to prevent this damage, it is suggested that decision makers use personal and household insurance products like the international system. The results of this research clearly show that Kerman province has taken the process of increasing the level of household welfare according to Engel's approach, unlike the households of Yazd province. It is hoped that the politicians will prevent the decrease in the welfare level of households by providing personal and household insurance products with the policy recommendations of the researchers, including the practical policy solutions of this article regarding the prevention of changing the behavior of households in unwanted phenomena.
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