ارزیابی مخاطرات اولویت دار و شیوه مداخله ایمن سازی روستاهای درمعرض خطر ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سکونتگاه های روستایی با خصوصیاتی نظیر موقعیت جغرافیایی، ویژگی های محیطی، ساختار کالبدی- فضایی و سطح برخورداری معمولاً بیشترین بحران ها را در زمان بروز مخاطرات تجربه می نمایند. ازاین رو شناسایی آسیب پذیری سکونتگاه های روستایی با در نظر گرفتن متغیرها و عوامل مؤثر، از مهم ترین روش های پیشگیری، کاهش خطر و مدیریت مخاطرات در روستاها به شمار می رود. در شناسایی، اولویت بندی و نحوه اقدام در روستاهای در معرض خطر سوانح طبیعی، از 48857 روستای بالای 20 خانوار در سراسر کشور، حدود 9000 روستای در معرض خطر با ریسک بالا در 5 اولویت دسته بندی و 1418 روستا با اولویت اول مورد بازدید میدانی قرار گرفت. سپس گزارش های بازدید با استفاده از نرم افزار NVIVO تحلیل محتوایی شد. نتایج نشان داد که از 1418 روستای بازدید شده، 1169 روستا با مخاطره سیلاب، 638 روستا با مخاطره زلزله، 393 روستا با حرکات دامنه ای (زمین لغزش، سنگ افتان و غیره)، 33 روستا با فرونشست و فروچاله و 18 روستا با خطر ماسه های روان مواجهند و برخی از روستاها به صورت همزمان چندین مخاطره را تجربه می کنند. همچنین پس از دسته بندی و تعیین فراوانی راهکارهای پیشنهادی جهت کاهش خطر سوانح در روستاهای درمعرض، ساماندهی رودخانه ها و مسیل ها با 05/26 درصد، اجرای طرح های آبخیزداری با 16/17 درصد، جمع آوری و هدایت آب های سطحی و زیرزمینی با 17/10 درصد، ایجاد / بهسازی امکانات زیربنایی با 43/8 درصد و رعایت حد و حریم بستر با 04/8 درصد، بالاترین آمار را به خود اختصاص دادند. هم زمانی آمار بالای روستاهای درمعرض خطر سیلاب و پرتکرارترین مشکلات شناسایی شده در روستاها در حوزه ی کاهش خطر سیلاب، و از طرفی ویژگی طبیعی و جغرافیایی کشور ما و تشدید اثرات تغییر اقلیم و نظریه های موجود بر پایه افزایش احتمال وقایع حدی، ضرورت توجه به عملکرد دستگاه های ذی مدخل و شفاف سازی تکالیف و مسئولیت های ذاتی هر دستگاه و روابط میان متولیان و ذی مدخلان در ارتباط با چالش های شناسایی شده را بیش ازپیش نمایان می سازد.Evaluating Priority Hazards and Safe Intervention Methods for At-risk Villages in Iran
Introduction
Rural settlements, characterized by their geographic location, environmental features, spatial-physical structure, and level of resources, often face the greatest challenges during hazardous events. Identifying the vulnerabilities of these rural settlements by considering various influential factors is one of the most important methods for preventing, reducing risks, and managing hazards in these areas. To identify the hazards that affect a significant number of villages across Iran and to recognize the weaknesses and problems many of these villages face when dealing with such hazards, field reports from 1418 villages were analyzed using NVivo software. This content analysis involved categorizing, counting, and determining the frequency of identified natural hazards, as well as the solutions proposed by expert inspection teams. The study’s findings identify the most common current challenges and problems these villages encounter in facing natural hazards. These results can be utilized to reduce the risk of natural disasters and enhance the safety of villages, identify weaknesses and strengths, prioritize needs in action plans, and assess the performance and effectiveness of the activities of relevant executive agencies in crisis management.
Methodology
The research method employed in this study is quantitative content analysis, a technique used to objectively and systematically describe explicit content in a quantifiable manner. In this quantitative approach, the primary aim is to measure the frequency of various thematic categories. The stages of content analysis, as outlined by Borg and Gall (1989), involve six steps: identifying relevant documents, setting research objectives, selecting a sample of documents, developing a categorization method, counting the frequency of each category, and interpreting the results. Notably, the study utilized a deductive approach for developing categorization methods. This involved analyzing the content of field visit reports that proposed solutions for safeguarding villages at risk of natural disasters. The analysis focused on themes and concepts related to disaster risk reduction and village safety, using NVivo software for data management and analysis.
Findings
After an initial study and screening using the specified criteria, priority villages at risk of natural disasters were identified at a national level. Following validation from local experts, the Housing Foundation for the Islamic Revolution and Crisis Management in all 31 provinces confirmed the list of villages identified during the preliminary studies. A total of 1418 villages across the country were visited through field assessments conducted by teams of disaster risk specialists. Following the submission of the field visit reports, the content of these reports was analyzed using NVivo software. This content analysis revealed that out of the 1,418 visited villages, 1169 villages (82.4%) were at risk of flooding, 638 villages were at risk of earthquakes (45%), 393 villages were at risk of landslide-related hazards (such as landslides and falling rocks) (27.7%), 33 villages were at risk of subsidence and sinkholes (2.3%), and 18 villages were at risk of moving sands (1.3%).
Discussion and Conclusion
After categorizing and determining the frequency of proposed solutions for disaster risk reduction in at-risk villages, it was found that the highest percentages were attributed to the following measures: organizing rivers and streams at 26.5%, implementing watershed management plans at 17.6%, collecting and directing surface and groundwater at 17.1%, establishing or improving infrastructure facilities at 8.4%, and maintaining bank and riverbed boundaries at 8.4%. The correlation between the high number of villages at risk of flooding and the most frequently identified issues related to flood risk reduction underscores the significance of the natural and geographical characteristics of our country, as well as the exacerbated effects of climate change and theories suggesting an increased likelihood of extreme events. This further highlights the necessity for attention to the performance of involved agencies and the clarification of each agency’s duties and responsibilities, as well as the relationships among stakeholders regarding the identified challenges.
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