تأثیر همه گیری کووید-19 بر بازار سهام: مطالعه موردی کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: دارایی های مالی به سرعت به بحران های جهانی واکنش نشان می دهند. با توجه به این که بسیاری از کشورها پس از شیوع بیماری کرونا سیاست های قرنطینه شدیدی را اتخاذ کرده اند، فعالیت های اقتصادی به شدت محدود شده اند. همه گیری کووید-19 باعث افزایش شدید عدم قطعیت شده است و در این میان شوک وارده به بازار نفت و بازار سهام بی سابقه بوده است. بنابراین با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، هدف از این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر اپیدمی کووید 19 بر بازار سهام کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک است. روش: در این تحقیق برای بررسی موضوع از اطلاعات و داده های مجموعه منتخب کشورهای عضو اوپک در دوره زمانی 2017:01 تا 2022:08 و همچنین از مدل داده های تابلویی و روش حرکت تعمیم یافته (GMM) استفاده شده است. متغیرهای تحقیق شامل نرخ ارز، قیمت طلا و قیمت نفت و متغیر مجازی برای دوره شیوع ویروس کووید 19 است.یافته ها: نتایج این مطالعه نشان دهنده تأثیرپذیری منفی بازار سهام کشورهای منتخب از اپیدمی بیماری کرونا است. همچنین رابطه بین قیمت نفت اوپک و بازار سهام به لحاظ آماری بی معنی به دست آمد. نرخ ارز تأثیر مثبت و غیرمعناداری بر بازار سهام دارد. در نهایت رابطه بین قیمت طلا و بازار سهام در کشورهای منتخب مثبت است. نتیجه گیری: نتایج نشان می دهد بحران جهانی کووید-19 منجر به کاهش شاخص بازار سهام در کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک شده است، این نتیجه با شواهد دو سال اخیر در بازارهای مالی در سراسر جهان تأیید می شود.The Impact of Covid-19 Epidemic on Stock Market; Case Study of Selected OPEC Member Countries
Objective: Financial assets are rapidly responding to global crises. While the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a sharp rise in uncertainty, the shock to the oil market and the stock market is unprecedented. Economic activities have been severely curtailed due to the fact that many countries have adopted strict quarantine policies since the covid-19 epidemic. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a sharp rise in uncertainty, with unprecedented shocks to the oil and stock markets. As the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, usual social activities and economic trade activities are still restricted, which influences normal economic development. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy have been forecasted to be much worse than the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) resulting in a crisis like no other no previous infectious disease outbreak (including the Spanish Flu) has ever affected the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. With nearly 3 billion people staying at home to prevent spread, the global oil demand dropped significantly. Furthermore, the large-scale outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world led to the collapse of the global stock market. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has been raging worldwide, and has had a traumatic impact on the global economy, trade, and other aspects. To minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, economists began to analyze their relationship. However, as stock markets are the global economy’s driving force, economists are focusing on research linking the stock markets and the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it is important to research the effect of the pandemic on the oil and gold price and then stock markets in order to restore normal economic operations as soon as possible and reduce the economic losses incurred by the pandemic. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of world oil prices, world gold prices, exchange rates on the stock market.Method: In this research, to study the subject, we use monthly data of opec oil price, world gold price, and exchange rate by using the central bank of Iran. OPEC, investing.com and worldmeter.com data for selected set of opec member countries in the period 2017: 01 to 2022: 08 and also panel data model and generalized method of movement (GMM) have been used. This method is a powerful estimator that, unlike the maximum likelihood method, does not require accurate information on the distribution of error terms and also, this method, which is used in dynamic aggregate data, is based on the assumption that equation error terms are uncorrelated with a set of instrumental variables. we using Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS) (2003) test examing variables stationary then by pedroni (2004) examine panel cointegration test.Results: The results of this study show the negative influence of the stock market of selected countries on the epidemic of the Covid-19 virus. In other words, with the spread of the Covid-19 virus, the stock market of the studied countries has been negatively affected. The variables of oil price and exchange rate did not have a significant effect on the stock market index during the studied period. Finally the relationship between gold price and stock market in selected countries is positive. the direct relationship between the gold price and the stock market indicates that Following the corona virus epidemic in the world and its persistence and uncertainty about the economic activities in the world, gold was considered as a suitable asset for buying and investing and its price increased. As a result, many investors turned to this asset and its excitement is also affecting the stock market, and the stock index of the stock market increased.Conclusion: Most of the world's financial markets are affected by the coronavirus epidemic. Uncertainty resulting from the situation has led to changes in gold and oil prices and the stock markets of countries have also been affected. the result indicate that the global Covid-19 crisis has led to a decline in the stock market in selected opec member countries, this result is confirmed by the evidence of the last two years in financial markets around the world. there is still much room for investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the oil and stock markets. For example, by using high-frequency data, we could study the empirical results by using the GARCH models.
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