تأثیر تحریم بانک مرکزی بر انباشت سرمایه مالی بخش خصوصی در ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: بررسی تأثیر تکانه پولی تحریم بانک مرکزی بر موقعیت مالی و ترازنامه ای بخش خصوصی ایران (از طریق تأثیر بر سرمایه مالی بخش خصوصی) با استفاده از مدل های تطبیق روانه انباره است. روش: از داده های اقتصاد ایران برای دوره 1397 - 1390 برای بدست آوردن مقادیر پارامترها استفاده شده و سپس مدل تحقیق برای یک دوره 50 ساله شبیه سازی شده است و بر اساس آن اثرات تکانه تحریم بانک مرکزی در سه سناریوی، تحریم ضعیف، تحریم متوسط و تحریم شدید شبیه سازی و تحلیل شده است. یافته ها: نتایج تحقیق ضمن تایید نظریه عدم تقارن تکانه پولی، نشان می دهد که تحریم بانک مرکزی باعث کاهش انباشت سرمایه مالی بخش خصوصی می شود. همچنین سیاست های مالی انبساطی دولت تأثیر منفی تحریم بانک مرکزی بر انباشت سرمایه مالی بخش خصوصی را کاهش می دهد. نتیجه گیری: تکانه پولی تحریم بانک مرکزی با کاهش انباشت سرمایه مالی بخش خصوصی، باعث کاهش مصرف از کانال ثروت و کاهش سرمایه گذاری از کانال های وام دهی بانکی، ترازنامه، نرخ بهره و q توبین می شود. چون در زمان محدودیت منابع مالی، بنگاه های کوچک برای تامین سرمایه با مشکلات بیشتری نسبت به بنگاه های بزرگ مواجه خواهند بود، لذا آسیب بیشتری از تحریم خواهند برد. توصیه می گردد که دولت در سیاست های حمایتی خود این مسئله را درنظر داشته باشد.The Impact of Central Bank Sanctions on Private Sector Financial Capital Accumulation in Iran
Objective: In this research, the effect of central bank sanctions on the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector will be investigated in the framework of a Post-Keynesian model of SFC. The reason for using this model is the suitability of the post-Keynesian approach to the research topic. Post-Keynesian market economics states that if the social is to be realized automatically, the government must step in as a market firm that aims or changes the outcome in a desirable way, with minimal interventionist policies, to achieve social action. Post-Keynesians are against the role of the government in the economy and believe that the markets need the support of the government in order to manage the management. Method: In this research, macroeconomic modeling was done with an accounting approach. This approach gained popularity after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007, which brought macroeconomic problems to many developed countries. The matching model used in this research provides the possibility of connecting the real and financial aspects of the economy in a coherent and integrated framework, which is an important advantage of these models compared to the common classical models. The research model is made in such a way that it records the changes made in the whole system when one of the parameters is modified by changing the behavior of each of the parts involved in the model. This feature allows the model to reflect the consequences of fiscal or monetary policy as well as exogenous shocks such as sanctions and shows how the balance sheets of individual sectors are interdependent .First, the model is estimated using the data of Iran's economy for the period 2010-2015, and then this model is simulated to create a basic scenario for the period 2001-2011, based on which the shock effects of the central bank sanctions in three scenarios, weak sanctions (in which 80% of foreign exchange resources return to the country), moderate sanctions (in which 50% of foreign exchange resources return to the country) and strick sanctions (in which only 20% of foreign exchange resources return to the country) for a period of 50 It has been simulated and analyzed. Findings: The results of the research show that sanctioning the central bank and restricting its access to foreign exchange resources resulting from the trade surplus can have adverse effects on other sectors of the economy in addition to the central bank itself. Sanctioning the central bank will reduce the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector, which can disrupt the economic production by reducing the resources necessary for private sector investment and create the grounds for the economy to enter recession. Also, the extent of this effect depends on the severity of the sanctions, and with the tightening of the sanctions, the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector is more affected. If the sanctions are permanent, it will cause the financial capital of the private sector to reach its stable state after a few years of reduction (depending on the severity of the sanctions), at a lower level than before. The thing to think about is that the more severe the sanction, in addition to a sharper decrease in the financial capital variable, it will take much longer for the variable to reach a stable state. This time will be about 10 years for a weak permanent embargo, about 15 years for a medium permanent embargo, and about 20 years for a severe permanent embargo. Conclusion: According to the post-Keynesian theories, the duty of the government is to intervene in the economy and prevent the formation of recession. In this regard, the effect of the two expansionary financial policies of increasing government spending and reducing taxes that the government can do is to prevent the reduction of financial capital accumulation. The private sector was investigated. The results of the research showed that these policies have a positive effect on the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector and Yolet can reduce the severity of the negative effects of sanctions on the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector by applying them. This means that if the government wants to prevent the reduction of the accumulation of financial capital of the private sector due to the sanctions of the central bank, it has to impose a budget deficit on itself. It is clear that the government's budget deficit has consequences for Iran's economy. Whether the government's intervention in the economy is the right thing to do in this situation or not, it needs further study and examination and comparison of the negative consequences of the government's budget deficit and the decrease in the accumulation of private sector financial capital in Iran's economy. But what emerges from the results of the research is that the sanction of the Central Bank has harmful effects and consequences on the Iranian economy and affects all sectors of the economy.
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