آیین وطن آبی ترکیه و پیامدهای آن برای ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
آیین وطن آبی را نخستین بار در سال ۲۰۰۶ جم گوردنیز، نظامی بازنشسته نیروی دریایی ترکیه مطرح کرد، اما توجه چندانی را به خود جلب نکرد. اما در سال های اخیر با توجه به نیازهای جدید و تغییرهای ایجادشده در سیاست خارجی ترکیه، وطن آبی توانسته جنبه عملی تری به خود بگیرد. در این نوشتار به دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که: وطن آبی با توجه به پیشینه و هدف هایش چه پیامدهایی برای ایران می تواند داشته باشد؟ پس از بررسی پیشینه پژوهش و با استفاده از روش روندپژوهی و همچنین خوانشی نوین از ژئوپلیتیک، می کوشیم به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم. گسترش حضور در شرق مدیترانه به همراه استفاده از همه امکانات موجود در این منطقه، بهره برداری از منابع انرژی حوزه لوانت و تبدیل شدن ترکیه به هاب انرژی و مسیر حمل ونقل از هدف های اصلی وطن آبی است. با توجه به این هدف ها پیامدهای این آیین برای ایران را می توان در دو حوزه در نظر گرفت. در حوزه سیاسی و نظامی افزایش حضور ترکیه در شرق مدیترانه به ویژه در لبنان می تواند تنش ها میان دو کشور را افزایش دهد که با توجه به تعدد و پیوستگی نقاط تقابل ترکیه و ایران در منطقه، درگیری ها به راحتی می تواند به نقاط دیگر سرریز کند یا از آن ها تأثیر پذیرد. در حوزه انرژی نیز تبدیل ترکیه به هاب انرژی، هم می تواند فرصتی برای صادرات گاز ایران به اروپا باشد و هم می تواند سبب حذف این کشور از راه گذرهای بین المللی آینده شود.Turkiye's "Blue Homeland Doctrine" and Its Consequences for Iran
Introduction: On November 29, 2020, Turkiye sent an exploratory ship named "Oruç Reis" to the eastern Mediterranean waters to search for energy sources. Although the activities of this ship provoked protests from many countries in the region, these protests could not prevent the extension of its mission until January 2021. Analysts believe that the "Oruç Reis" mission, like the 2019 agreement between Turkiye and the Libyan government regarding the determination of the exclusive and economic zone of the two countries, is a continuation of Turkiye's new maritime doctrine "Blue Homeland", which has been widely discussed in the media and political circles of Turkiye in recent months. The "Blue Homeland Doctrine" was first proposed in 2006 by retired Turkish Navy General Cem Gordeniz, but it failed to attract much attention. But in recent years, due to the new needs and changes in Turkiye's foreign policy, the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" has been able to take on a more practical aspect. In the following article, after examining the background of the research and using the Trend Impact Analysis method and a new reading of geopolitics, we have tried to answer our question. Research Question: The question that we will address in this article is what consequences the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" have for Iran considering its history and goals? Especially since the issue of obtaining hydrocarbon energies in the Eastern Mediterranean and the expansion of political and military influence is one of the main issues raised in the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" and at the same time is one of the most important concerns of the Turkish government. Meanwhile, Iran, as Turkiye's neighbor, is one of the countries with large energy reserves. Research Hypothesis: According to the Methodology used for this article, no hypothesis has been considered. Methodology and Theoretical Framework: The analysis of the current article is based on the Trend Impact Analysis method. The trend is called regular and continuous transformations of data over time. In this method, the process is influenced by a sequence of events, and by events we mean important events that may play an important role in shaping the future. The theoretical framework of this article is based on a three-level reading of the international system along with geopolitical factors. This new reading of geopolitics is taken from the opinion of Mohiuddin Mesbahi in the article "free and confined: Iran and the international system". In this article, the emphasis is on geopolitics and geoeconomics, and the field of geoculture is not discussed. Our question can also be put in this new format and reading. Results and Discussion: In this article, in response to the question of, "The Consequences of the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" on Iran, we tried to investigate the origins and history of this doctrine and search for its goals. As we said, the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" is rooted in the feeling of greatness of this country due to years of presence in the Mediterranean in the form of the Ottoman Empire, as well as the fear of being encircled in the region following the borders imposed in 1923. Through this doctrine, Turkiye seeks to be able to use the energy resources of the Levant region and become a Mediterranean power, with a powerful military and economic presence and use all its facilities in the Eastern Mediterranean to introduce itself as an energy hub. After examining the origins and goals, we examined the main part of our question, the consequences of the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" on Iran and divided these consequences into two political-military and energy sectors. In the political and military sector, we came to the conclusion that Turkiye's attempt to influence Lebanon in various fields is in line with its goals for a wider presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and may put this country against Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is a non-governmental group with political, military and cultural power and considering the role this group plays in Iran's foreign policy in the region, it can cause tension between the two countries over Lebanon. In addition, the conflict in Lebanon can spread to other centers of conflict between the two countries, i.e., Syria and Iraq, or be affected by them and intensify. In the energy sector, we discussed the consequences that the turning Turkiye into an energy hub could have on Iran. Iran is the second holder of gas energy reserves in the world but it never uses these resources. Turning Turkiye into an energy hub by the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" can exclude Iran from the future energy corridors, but if the relations with Turkiye improve along with the removal of internal obstacles and international sanctions, the doctrine can be an opportunity to export this country's Gas to Europe. Conclusion: According to the objectives of the "Blue Homeland Doctrine" the consequences of this doctrine for Iran can be examined in two areas. In the political-military field, increasing Turkiye's presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in Lebanon, it can increase the tensions between the two countries, which can easily spread to other regions due to the many points of conflict between Turkiye and Iran in the region. In the field of energy, turning Turkiye into an energy hub can be an opportunity to export Iran's gas to Europe and it can also remove Iran from future international corridors.
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