چشم انداز گردشگری ماجراجویانه در ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
شاخص های جهانی گویای موقعیت ضعیف گردشگری ماجراجویانه ایران (میانگین کمتر از متوسط جهانی) در میان کشورهای در حال توسعه است، بنابراین، ضروری است تا نیروهای پیشران و مؤثر شناسایی و ظرفیت های رشد گردشگری های خاص به ویژه از نوع ماجراجویی در ایران سنجیده شود. این پژوهش داده بنیاد و کمی-کیفی، نتیجه تحلیل محتوای مطالعات پیشین، بررسی 10 متغیر شاخص جهانی توسعه گردشگری ماجراجویانه به همراه نظرخواهی از خبرگان به روش دلفی است. با رویکرد آینده پژوهی، سناریوهای محتمل برمبنای یافته ها پردازش شدند. استعاره های چشمه، برکه، کویر و باتلاق برای ترسیم چشم انداز سناریوها و به منظور توصیف و پیش بینی آینده گردشگری ماجراجویانه در سال 1410 ارائه شد. نتایج حاصل از 4 سناریوی قوی، سازگار و محتمل حاکی از آن است که ناپایداری توسعه گردشگری ماجراجویانه در ایران با روایت باتلاق، آشکار می شود.The Prospect of Adventure Tourism in Iran with Futures Studies Approach
Nowadays, adventure tourism guarantees sustainable tourism precisely because of its proximity to nature and the aim of responsible preservation of natural resources. This research explores the propellant and influencing forces on the development of adventure tourism. A practical, quantitative-qualitative, and exploratory method develops possible scenarios based on the future research approach. Data analysis was done using crass-impact balance analysis and forming a group of experts. The metaphors of headwaters, ponds, deserts, and swamps were presented to draw the vision of scenarios and to describe and predict the future of adventure tourism in 1410. The results of four robust, compatible, and probable scenarios indicate that the narrative of the swamp reveals the instability of the development of adventure tourism in Iran. Iran is very capable of becoming a destination for adventure tourism. Considering the influential role of tourism in the economy and society, corrective and targeted solutions for the sustainable development of tourism are inevitable for a hopeful future. Introduction Risky is the primary feature of adventure tourism. Processing data and information on the sustainable development variables, safety, natural resources, health, adventure activity resources, entrepreneurship, humanitarian, infrastructure, cultural resources, and the image of the adventure brand Adventure Tourism Development Index (ATDI) provide this possibility to by exploring and understanding assemble the course of evolution and the influence of determining factors on the sustainable development of adventure. It provides possession of researchers, policies, beneficiaries, and local communities. Thinking about the future requires specific language and techniques in order to predict the future. Scenarios can express any targeted and planned management in the form of predictable elements and uncertainties. The importance of foresight in the tourism industry has caused scenario-based planning to be referred to as the backbone of tourism (Postma, 2015, p. 46). Adventure tourism is significantly higher than the average growth rate of global tourism (Schott, 2007, p. 264). Kumar & Deshmukh (2022) predict the value of adventure tourism to reach $1,169,095 million by 2028, from $112,227 in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 20%. In this research, we show, by examining the two concepts of sustainable tourism and adventure tourism, that tourism as an intervening activity in the environment has essential effects on destination communities. Iran’s adventure tourism rank and position is a flip to investigate the reasons for inattention to this pioneer industry and to identify and narrate its compatible and probable scenarios. Materials and Methods The future study tries to determine the aims and values, describe the trends, and specify the conditions of realization and situations to draw different pictures of the future and evaluate and select alternative policies and plans. One of the methods of future study is scenario codification, in which two or more different scenarios or texts are usually written about the future of the subject that is most likely to occur. This research is applied, descriptive-analytical, and quantitative-qualitative. Generally, the scenario planning process is based on five steps: identification of context scenarios; recognition of influential factors; analysis of key factors; scenario production; scenario transfer (Kosow & Gaßner, 2008, p. 25). The data is a combination of a bibliographic and systematic review of tourism research in general and adventure tourism in particular. Statistical data processing and expert opinions were done by forming a Delphi panel and completing the mutual effects questionnaire. Variables were collected by examining previous research; the statistical population is the activists, employees, and tourists of the Iranian tourism industry, and the sample size consists of 12 tourism experts and activists, especially adventure tourism. The analysis of exploratory and probable scenarios through Scenario Wizard software deals with possible futures with a horizon of 1410. Discussion and Results The analysis of the findings was completed by using the main stages of future studies by Voros (2005). In this model, field identification and propellant forces have been obtained from the global index of adventure tourism. ATDI 2020 shows the weak position of Iran with a rank of 91 among 163 developing countries (Less than the global average). The three main factors of security and hosting, adventure, and preparation are influential in determining the index; each of these factors includes a set of variables that significantly impact the development of adventure. The Crass-Impact balance analysis method is used in scenario analysis, which is a qualitative technique for analyzing influence networks. Each variable with a range of different current situations was exposed to the four concepts of development, continuity, destruction, and crisis. In the best case, the possible and compatible scenarios obtained from the consensus of experts reflect the continuation of the current situation. Finally, an intense scenario and three scenarios with high compatibility and higher probability of occurrence were presented, indicating the continuation of the current trend and the crisis in the medium-term future. The two propellant forces of sustainable development and the image of the adventure brand form the two heads of the model due to their importance and uncertainty. The metaphors of headwater, pond, desert, and swamp were presented to draw the vision of scenarios and to describe and predict the future of adventure tourism in 1410. Conclusions A strong and probable scenario can be realized by predicting the swamp narrative on the horizon of 1410 unless they are replaced by a change in the attitude towards specific tourism, the social participation of the host community in the planning and development process, rational and embodied policies and most importantly, efficient reforms of out of access scenarios. Iran’s geographical conditions and economic and social characteristics are an opportunity for the future of adventure tourism. Educated, professional, and interested audiences accept many of the cultural constraints and barriers of the local community and act responsibly towards cultural resources. In the direction of the research aim, a set of policy, management, and research solutions are presented in this field. This enables tourism policies and planners to answer these two questions in the future, what will we do? Furthermore, how should we do it? Make a decision
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