سمانه افتخاری مهابادی

This paper focuses on developing models to study influential factors on the inflation rate for a panel of available countries in the World Bank data base during 2008-2012 . For this purpose , Random effect log-linear and Ordinal logistic models are used for the analysis of continuous and categorical inflation rate variables . As the original inflation rate response to variables shows an apparent right skewness , the log transformation in the linear mixed effect model seems necessery . In the ordinal logistic mixed effect model , as a new approach , the inflation rate variable is categorized based on two threshols to increase model predictibality and precision . These two models consider the potential serial correlation between annual infltion rates and categories through introducing some latent random effect parameters . The results of both models show that money growth , GDP , oil price and income levels of the available countries are significant predictors with increasing effect on the next year inflation rate category . Using the categorical inflation response variable yields some superior results where government expenditure , exchange rate and capital formation are also detected as significant determinants of ordinal inflation variable . Also , the random effect variance is highly significant in both models which shows the necessery need for consideration of the potential association of inflation variables across time . JEL Classifications: E17, E27, E31, E37, E47