Tran Van Hoa

China has become the world’s high-growth and second largest economy since its socialist- orientation opening-up reforms in the early 1980s. Due also to its geographical, cultural and historical attractions, the country has become the world’s fourth largest tourism destination and tenth largest tourism earner in 2018 according to the World Tourist Organization. The important role played by tourism in the Chinese economy has been officially recognized by China’s National Development and Reform Commission as a strategic pillar industry development priority. In spite of these, rigorous policy-related studies on China’s tourism have been limited. The paper is a serious econometric study to investigate the determination of China’s tourism and its contribution to the country during the period 1996-2018 for credible data-based policy analysis.  Significantly, the study is carried out appropriately from an economic integration (globalization) growth framework, which is also the expenditure (as opposed to production or income) perspective of the United Nations System of National Accounts 1998/2003. Specifically, a multi-simultaneous equation model of endogenous growth and China’s tourism determination is developed. The model innovatively incorporates gravity theory and classical consumer demand contributors, Ironmonger-Lancaster new commodity attributes and Johansen policy impact add- and sub-factors (i.e., reforms and crises) explicitly in its economic integration structure. The model is then estimated by system methods with official economic and tourism 1996-2018 data from the World Tourism Organization and international databases. The research will contribute to advances in the literature and the findings provide useful insights and appropriate and much needed evidence-based inputs on the determination and contributors of tourism to China’s growth. Recommendations will be provided to key stake-holders such as tourism policy-makers, academic researchers, business analysts and tourism operators for national strategic policy analysis and practical implementation. JEL Classification: C54, F15, F62, Z32, Z38

The paper focuses on regional trade agreements and economic co-operation and develops a new appropriate approach to study their impact on growth and trade. The approach is based on an endogenous trade-growth theory and novelly specified in an economic integration (expenditure) framework which is the conceptual foundation of regional trade agreements. Importantly, it also appropriately takes into account major add- and sub-factors as recommended by Johansen, the computable general equilibrium pioneer, in practical economic planning and policy modelling. Applications of the approach to China, a key member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement group, are also reported to provide useful insights for suitable evidence-based impact analysis. The analysis has relevance to such trading blocs as BRICS and the 21-member Indian Ocean Rim Association where Iran is a key member. Policy implications from the findings are then briefly discussed.

  The paper uses economic and energy data analysis and econometric modeling to study the prospects and challenges of Korea€™s 2003 FTA Roadmap (MOFAT 2013) in the form of potential comprehensive partnerships with its major trade and energy partners. It first reviews Korea€™s international economic and trade relations in recent years with a focus on its major merchandise export destinations and energy imports, and their association with the country€™s economic performance. A causal model of endogenous growth, gravity trade and energy imports for Korea in an economic integration theory framework (Tran 2012 Tran and Limskul 2013) is then developed to investigate the structural effects between these sectors. Empirical findings by system estimation are finally used to provide predictive policy implications for comprehensive partnerships between Korea and major resources-rich countries in the Middle East and potentially Iran.