بررسی تأثیر تغییرکاربری اراضی و اقلیم بر رواناب حوضه ی آبخیز با استفاده از مدل SWAT (مطالعه ی موردی :حوضه ی گرین) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تغییر کاربری اراضی و تأثیر پدیده ی تغییر اقلیم بر فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی و رواناب سطحی حوضه ی آبخیز می تواند به مدیریت چالش های منابع آب و برنامه ریزی صحیح و مدیریت حوضه های آبخیز کمک نماید. در این تحقیق به منظور بررسی اثر تغییر کاربری اراضی و تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب، مدل SWAT مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. برای پیش بینی کاربری اراضی حوضه ی گرین از تصاویر ماهواره لندست سال های 1986، 2000، 2014، مدل مارکوف وCA مارکوف استفاده و نقشه ی کاربری اراضی سال 2042 پیش بینی شد. ریز مقیاس نمایی داده های بارش و دما نیز توسط مدل SDSM انجام شد و خروجی های مدل HADCM3 جهت پیش بینی اقلیم آتی حوضه ی گرین استفاده گردید. با توجه به ضریب نش ساتکلیف و ضریب تعیین به دست آمده در مرحله واسنجی (به ترتیب برابر با 59/0 و60/0) و مرحله ی اعتبارسنجی (به ترتیب برابر با 66/0 و 67/0) این مدل دارای کارایی قابل قبولی در پیش بینی متغیرهای مورد بررسی در حوضه ی آبخیز مورد مطالعه است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می دهد با ثابت ماندن روند تغییرات دوره ی پایه در سال های 1986 تا 2014 این منطقه شاهد افزایش 28/2 درصدی مساحت جنگل و کاهش 07/2 درصدی مساحت مرتع تا سال 2042 نسبت به سال 2014 خواهد بود و همچنین مشاهده می شود که در اکثر ماه های سال در دوره ی آتی میانگین بارش ماهانه دارای روند کاهشی و میانگین دما دارای روند افزایشی خواهد بود. نتایج بیانگر این موضوع است که تغییر کاربری اراضی در دوره ی آتی با کاهش مساحت مرتع و اراضی بدون پوشش و افزایش مساحت اراضی جنگلی و همچنین تغییر اقلیم تحت سناریوهایA2 و B2 موجب کاهش میزان رواناب می گردد. در نهایت نتایج نشان داد کاهش میزان رواناب در دوره 2042 تا 2050 نسبت به دوره ی 2000 تا 2010 در اثر تغییر اقلیم (بارش و دما) بیشتر از میزان کاهشی است که در اثر تغییر کاربری اراضی ایجاد می شود.The Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Watershed Runoff Using SWAT Model (Case Study: Garin Watershed)
Intr4oduction Changing the environmental conditions of a natural ecosystem influences the hydrological responses such as flooding and the extent of erosion and sedimentation of the area. One of the models used to investigate the effect of land use change and climate change on runoff is SWAT model which is a hydrological simulator and a continuous and semi-distributive time-space model with a physical base. Understanding the relationship between land use change and its causative factors and its secondary effects on hydrologic regimes provides essential information for land use planning and sustainable management of natural resources. Investigating the amount and trend of the changes and its effect on the hydrological processes in the basin is a way to predict the state of future changes and provide more effective plans for the sustainable development of the water resources in the basin. The construction of the Garin Dam in the Garin Basin, the risk of filling the sediment reservoir with sediment, reducing its useful life due to seasonal floods, and the effect of basin land use and climate change were the reasons for choosing this area for this research. The purpose of this study was to study the land use and climate change in the studied watershed and determine the effect of these changes on the runoff rate of this watershed in order to better it correctly. Garin Dam is located in the Zagros in the province of Hamedan. It includes the catchment area of the Sarab Gamasiab River to the Garin Reservoir Dam and its area is up to the 22,000 m2. The Garin land basin is mainly mountainous and its range of height ranges from 1833.9 to 3429.2229 m above sea level. Materials and Methods SWAT model input data included climatic and hydrological data (daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, dew point, and solar radiation). In this study, the ten year data of Nahavand synoptic station was uased. Topographic maps, digital elevation model (DEM), soil and land use were also used as the input of the model. A digital elevation model (DEM) was extracted using a topographic map of 1: 250,000 of the Garin River basin. SWAT CUP software was used for the calibration and validation of the SWAT model. The calibration data was from the years 2002 to 2007, but the validation data was from 2008 to 2010. In order to determine the degree of the sensitivity of the flow parameters in the SWAT model, SUFI2 software SWAT CUP were used and the sensitivity of the selected 24 parameters were measured. The Elimination of the parameters which had less sensitivity, was based on the calibration process. According to the P-value and T-Stat criteria, the sensitivity of the parameters were determined. The land use maps of 1986, 2000, and 2014 were prepared at the previous stages, and the Markov chain and the CA Markov filter were used to map the land use in 2042. In this research, the outputs of the Hadcm3 model were used to predict Garin's future climate. In addition, the SDSM statistical method was used to fine-scale the output of the general atmospheric circulation models. The SWAT model was also used in the range of calibrated parameters to simulate runoff caused by climate change in Garin basin under two A2 and B2 scenarios. After micro-sampling, the SWAT model was converted and t analyzed for the scenarios. Then, the results of the model implementation with different scenarios and the results of model implementation with the current climate conditions were compared Results and Discussion Regarding the results of the statistical indices, NS index was 0.95. P and R factors were respectively 0.47 and 0.03, and the coefficient of determination (R2) for observed and simulated floodguns was 0.6. Accordingly, the results were confirmed in the calibration phase. The validation phase was conducted to verify the correctness of the selection of the parameters during the calibration period between 2008 and 2010. Given that the Nashatcliff coefficient for Garin's catchment area at the calibration and validation stages were respectively 0.95 and 0.66, , the results were satisfactory and the SWAT model was able to simulate surface runoff in Garin River Basin. In general, due to an increased forest use, an increased permeability and water drainage to the surface and deep water aquifers, and an increased evaporation and transpiration, the amount of runoff has decreased. Regarding the results of temperature, rainfall, and runoff of the next period, it can be seen that in months when rainfall is reduced and the temperature increased, the amount of runoff in the coming period also decreases. The main reasons for this discrepancy can be attributed to the difference in the intensity of land use change as well as the extent of the altered land area, which, given the mountainous nature of the area in the Garin land basin, can be compared to other areas with flat lands with agricultural uses. It is concluded that the effect of climate change in the Garin dam basin is greater than the change in land use due to its mountainous nature. Conclusion The results of the study of the effect of land use change on runoff in the Garin basin indicated that there was a daily and monthly decline in the amount of runoff. The results of the study of the effect of climate change on runoff in the Garin western basin also indicated that there was a daily and monthly decline in the amount of runoff. In both A2 and B2 scenarios, the monthly average temperature, especially in the first and last months of the year, had an increasing trend and rainfall decreased in the spring and winter. It can be attributed to the increased temperature and evaporation, and decreased rainfall. It can also be seen that there was a decline in the average monthly runoff in January, February, April, May and December, with a decreased rainfall, but there was an increase in the average monthly runoff in June, July, August and September, with an increased rainfall. In addition, the effect of land use change on the reduction of runoff in the upcoming period is lower compared to the change effect under A2 and B2 scenarios. It will affect the climate change of the runoff more flatly and the reduction of runoff is more affected by climate change. According to the information obtained from these predictions, it is possible to properly manage the watershed and adopt appropriate management measures in accordance with the conditions of this watershed, prevent unauthorized land use changes, and reduce the damage caused by the phenomenon of the climate change.
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