سنجش تغییرات ساختاری در ترجیحات واردکنندگان خرمای ایران: مطالعه موردی فدراسیون روسیه
آرشیو
چکیده
انتظار بر این بوده است که از سال 2014، با تحریم های غرب علیه کشور روسیه و اقدام متقابل این کشور، الگوی ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان این کشور دچار تغییراتی شود. بررسی رفتار عقلایی و ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان کشور روسیه در قبال کالاهای داخلی یا خارجی، با توجه به دریافتن اثرگذاری تکانه ها و سیاست ها به صورت شکست ساختاری یا تغییر در ترجیحات افراد حائز اهمیت است. از این رو، در مطالعه حاضر، پایداری و شکست ساختاری ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان این کشور برای محصول خرما با استفاده از روش ناپارامتری بر مبنای اصل ضعیف ترجیحات آشکارشده (WARP)، اصل قوی ترجیحات آشکارشده (SARP) و اصل تعمیم یافته ترجیحات آشکارشده (GARP) بررسی شد و آنگاه آزمون فرضیه یادشده انجام گرفت. در این راستا، داده های قیمت و مقدار مربوط به واردات خرما به روسیه از مبادی عمده وارداتی شامل کشورهای ایران، تونس و الجزایر با بیشترین میزان صادرات این محصول به روسیه در دوره زمانی 20-2002 بررسی شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که اصل WARP بیانگر هفت جفت نقض در سال های 2007 و 2008 بوده و نتایج اصول SARP و GARP نیز بیانگر وجود 132 مورد نقض در داده هاست. همچنین، نتایج آماره کروسکال- والیس (K-W) نشان داد که مقدار محاسبه شده این آماره در دوره 19-2016 از مقدار بحرانی آماره کی دو ( 2 χ) بزرگ تر است و فرض صفر مبنی بر شکست ساختاری در سال مورد نظر پذیرفته می شود؛ و بر مبنای اصل WARP، شکستی در ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان خرما در روسیه رخ داده است. نتایج نهایی محاسبه آماره K-W بر مبنای اصول قوی و تعمیم یافته ترجیحات آشکارشده (SARP و GARP) نیز نشان داد که شکست ساختاری در ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان برای سبد کالایی خرما بر اثر تکانه غیرخطی موقت نبوده، بلکه ناشی از شکست ساختاری واقعی در ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان خرما در روسیه است.Measuring Structural Changes in Preferences of Iranian Date Importers: A Case Study of Russian Federation
Introduction: Since Russia's conflict with Ukraine, which began in late February 2014, international sanctions have been imposed by the United States, the European Union (EU) and some other countries as well as international organizations against Russia and Crimea including Russian individuals, professional sectors, and officials. The extensive U.S. sanctions against Russia have been imposed since 2014 after the Western-oriented government came to power in Ukraine, and so far, Washington has imposed more than 75 packages of economic and financial sanctions, as well as sanctions against Russian officials. The European Union, following in the footsteps of the United States, has imposed sanctions packages on Russia and still renews them every six months. Russia has also imposed sanctions on a number of countries, including Australia, Canada, Norway, Japan, the United States, and the European Union, regarding a complete ban on food imports. According to a 2023 report by the World Trade Organization, in 2022, Russia has shifted its import pattern to non-Western countries after Western sanctions. Russia's climate limits its ability to produce some agricultural products, making imports necessary to meet domestic demand. This is especially true for tropical crops such as dates, which cannot be cultivated in Russia due to its cold climate. As a result, Russia needs imports to supply its consumed dates. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Russia does not have production statistics on the dates crop, and has become one of the major markets for date imports in the world over recent years. By reviewing the statistics of the FAO in different years, the main sources of date imports to Russia are found to be Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia. It is expected that with the Western sanctions against Russia and its reciprocal action since 2014, the pattern of consumer preferences in this country will change. Therefore, it is important to study the rational behavior and preferences of Russian consumers towards domestic or foreign goods because it deals with the impact of shocks and policies in the form of structural failure or changes in people's preferences. Materials and Methods: In this study, the sustainability and structural failure of the Russian consumers' preferences for dates crops was investigated using a non-parametric method based on the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference (WARP), Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference (SARP), and Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP) and the hypothesis was tested. In order to investigate the sustainability of Russian consumers' behavior of dates, which is reflected in the import of dates from Iran, Tunisia and Algeria , information about the value and quantity of dates imports to Russia was obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Then, by dividing the value of imports by volume of imports, the weighted average price of the Russian dates imported from each of the mentioned trading partners was calculated. It should be noted that the required information was available for Algeria from 2002 and for Iran until 2019, and also for Algeria and Tunisia until 2020. Therefore, the study period was selected from 2002 to 2020. Results and Discussion: The study results of the WARP indicated that out of 171 pairs of the studied baskets, there were violations in seven pairs . The study results of the SARP and GARP indicated that out of 171 pairs of baskets studied, 132 violations were observed in the data . The calculated value of the Kruskal-Wallis (K-W) test from 2016 onwards (2019) was greater than the critical value at the level of five percent, and the zero assumption of structural change in the year in question was confirmed; and based on the WARP, there has been a structural change in the preferences of date consumers in Russia. The final results of calculating the K-W test based on the SARP and GARP showed that the structural change had occurred. The occurrence of structural change in Russian consumer preferences for the date commodity basket is not temporary due to a nonlinear impulse, but it is caused by a real structural change in the preferences of consumers in this country. The final results of calculating the W statistic based on the SARP and GARP showed that the structural change had occurred. The occurrence of structural change in Russian consumer preferences for the date commodity basket is not temporary due to a nonlinear impulse, but it is caused by a real structural change in the preferences of consumers in this country as well. Conclusion and Suggestions: The change in Russian consumers' preferences about dates can be attributed to a combination of qualitative, marketing, and logistic factors. Although there have been no direct scientific studies on the preferences of date consumers in Russia, it can be seen that based on market analyses of imported products, it can be seen that packaging, product quality, and digital strategies play a pivotal role in attracting the customers. It is suggested that the government form a special working group for important export products such as dates, consisting of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), the Trade Development Organization, and the Exporters' Union, to implement and compile the necessary export standards in accordance with the needs of the Russian market within a certain period of time, and also by establishing an export guarantee fund with a specific initial capital to cover trade risks. and the launch of a specialized digital platform for direct communication between producers and date buyers in Russia. Success in the Russian market requires an integrated approach: from choosing the type of dates and attractive packaging to meeting health requirements and using digital tools. This strategy not only increases market share, but also helps to stabilize the position of Iranian dates in the global supply chain.
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