شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه اکوتوریسم پایدار در بیابان لوت (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
حوزه های تخصصی:
شماره صفحات:
۳۹ - ۵۸
دریافت مقاله
آرشیو
چکیده
بیابان لوت ازجمله ژئوسیستم های منحصربه فرد ایران و جهان می باشد که سیر تکامل و تحول آن موجبات شکل گیری تنوع ذاتی آن را در کنار انحصار در خصوصیات محیطی فراهم نموده است. این دو ویژگی، یعنی تنوع و منحصربه فرد بودن، موجبات توانمندی های ذاتی این واحد در راستای توسعه گردشگری را فراهم نموده است. به همین منظور پژوهش حاضر، با تکنیک آینده پژوهی به شناسایی، اولویت بندی و تدوین مهم ترین عوامل تعیین کننده توسعه گردشگری بیابان لوت و ارائه چارچوبی مناسب جهت برنامه ریزی در افق 1415 می پردازد. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی، از نظر روش، ترکیبی از روش های اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت بر اساس روش های آینده پژوهی، اکتشافی و تحلیلی است که با به کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل های کمی و کیفی انجام گرفته است. جهت جمع آوری داده ها عمدتاً از روش های اسنادی و دلفی استفاده شده است. همچنین برای تجزیه وتحلیل داده ها از نرم افزار MICMAC استفاده شده است. در ادامه پس از برگزاری جلسات اولیه بحث با بیست نفر از نخبگان و متخصصان گردشگری به عنوان جامعه آماری تحقیق، از بین 40 مؤلفه اثرگذار استخراج شده از طریق مرور منابع و مصاحبه با صاحب نظران امر، تعداد 14 متغیر (دارای بیشترین اهمیت و عدم قطعیت در خصوص موضوع پژوهش) در قالب فاکتورهای توسعه ای به عنوان متغیرهای اصلی شناسایی شدند. یافته ها نشان می دهد، ضمن تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل میان عوامل، 5 نیروی پیشران سازنده بدیل های احتمالی آینده توسعه گردشگری بیابان لوت شامل: برنامه ریزی و سیاست گذاری توسعه گردشگری بیابان لوت، توسعه حکمرانی گردشگری بیابان لوت، تقویت حاکمیت کشور در توسعه گردشگری بیابان لوت، بهبود سیستم اقتصادی و بهبود حمایت مالی و سرمایه گذاری. تشکیل دهنده فضای توسعه و رونق گردشگری بیابان لوت در آینده هستند. در نتیجه با کاربست تکنیک آینده پژوهی و با مدنظر قرار دادن پیشران های کلیدی مذکور، تصمیمات و برنامه ریزی ها در راستای توسعه پایدار اکوتوریسم بیابان لوت جهت دار شده و در مسیر هدفمند قرار خواهند گرفت.Identification and analysis of key factors affecting the development of Sustainable Ecotourism in Lut Desert
The Lut Desert is one of Iran's and the world's unique geosystems. Its evolution and transformation have led to the formation of inherent diversity and dominance in environmental characteristics. These two features, diversity and uniqueness, have provided this unit with inherent capabilities for tourism development. Therefore, using the technique of future studies, this study identifies, prioritizes, and formulates the most important factors that determine the development of Lut Desert tourism. It presents a suitable framework for planning in the horizon of 2036. In terms of purpose, this study is practical, and this research uses a combination of documentary and survey methods. In terms of nature, it is based on future studies and exploratory and analytical methods. This was carried out by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The documentary and Delphi methods were mainly used to collect data. MICMAC software was also utilized for data analysis. Following initial discussion sessions with twenty tourism elites and experts as the study sample, fourteen variables out of forty were identified as the most important and uncertain factors related to the research topic. These variables were extracted from a review of sources and expert interviews, focusing on development factors. Five driving forces of potential alternatives were identified for future development during the analysis of the mutual effects between these factors. These driving forces include planning and policy development for Lut Desert tourism, governance development, strengthening the country's sovereignty in Lut Desert tourism development, improving the economic system, and enhancing financial support and investment. As a result, by applying the future research technique and taking into consideration the mentioned key drivers, decisions and plans will be directed and placed on a targeted path in the direction of the sustainable development of Lut desert ecotourismIntroductionDespite the historical significance and potential benefits of desert tourism, its development in Iran has not been realized to its full potential. One of the challenges affecting tourism in the Lut desert is the lack of optimal planning. Despite the presence of natural, social, historical, and cultural resources that could support tourism development, the industry still lacks practical, targeted, and effective planning. It has not received the special attention it deserves.Addressing and paying attention to desert tourism in Iran can be of special importance and necessity for the country's development and transformation. Achieving this task requires planners and policymakers to thoroughly understand past, present, and future situations to select and implement the best strategies and solutions for the development of alternative tourism. This is especially crucial in the field of Lut desert tourism studies. Utilizing future knowledge approaches is essential for success in this endeavor.In this regard, the current research aims to investigate and identify the most important factors affecting the development of Lut Desert tourism, how they influence each other, and the extent of their impact. Considering the nature of the subject, this research has been conducted to answer the following question:-What are the key driving forces affecting the future development of Lut Desert tourism, how do they affect each other, and to what extent?MethodologyThis research combines documentary and survey methods for practical purposes. It is based on future studies, using exploratory and analytical methods with a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Data collection primarily involved documentary and Delphi methods, with analysis conducted using MICMAC software. Various future studies techniques, such as the Delphi technique and analysis of mutual/structural effects, were applied to understand and explain future research in the field of tourism.During the first stage of the research, 20 executive elites and tourism experts were selected as the study sample. These individuals had extensive expertise and experience in tourism issues. The main goal was to gather indicators (drivers) and primary factors that impact the development of Lut desert tourism. Existing documents were reviewed, and in-depth interviews were conducted using open and semi-structured questions.The interviews extracted 40 primary indicators that are effective in developing Lut Desert tourism. Based on these indicators, a Delphi questionnaire was designed. This questionnaire was then provided to the experts from the first stage to confirm the items.After collecting data and identifying 14 main indicators as development factors in the Delphi model, the compiled questionnaires were distributed among the elites. They were asked to evaluate the variables based on the degree of their influence and susceptibility using numbers in the cross-effects matrix. The measure ranges from 0 to 3, where zero means no effect, one means weak effect, two means medium effect, and three means high effect. "P" means direct and indirect effect. Results and discussionPlanning and strategizing for the development of Lut Desert tourism allows experts and officials to anticipate future risks and opportunities. This gives them the time to think and make decisions before facing these challenges. Knowing how to plan for the future has become increasingly important due to the rapid pace of change in the world.It is essential to identify the drivers and factors impacting the desired system to make informed decisions and plan for a more desirable future. In the competitive field of tourism, understanding uncertainties, recognizing alternative futures, and prioritizing activities through future studies research are crucial for success. By identifying key drivers, policymakers in Lut Desert tourism can better navigate future uncertainties.The key drivers play a crucial role in shaping the future of Lut Desert tourism development and guiding the system towards necessary changes. They are seen as transformative and influential forces that impact the future trends and paths of tourism development. These drivers should be coordinated and integrated into the overall plan. People and organizations involved in tourism planning need to consider the development of Lut Desert tourism, ensuring that while preserving the current conditions, comprehensive development can be achieved in a principled manner for the future. ConclusionAmong the 40 initially extracted influential components, 14 variables were identified as development factors due to their importance and uncertainty regarding the research subject. This identification was made by analyzing the impact plan matrix and evaluating key factors directly and indirectly. Five constructive driving forces were identified as possible reasons for this, including planning and policy development for Lut desert tourism, governance of Lut desert tourism development, strengthening governance in the development of Lut desert tourism, improving the economic system, and enhancing financial support and investment. These factors play a significant role and have positive and negative effects on the future development of Lut desert tourism.These propellants have a significant advantage in influencing other variables, giving them the power to drive future environmental development variables. As a result, they can be identified as key factors and effective drivers for the future development of Lut Desert tourism by the year 2036. In direct and indirect effects, driving factors carry the most weight compared to other influencing factors, highlighting their importance in developing Lut Desert tourism. Planning for developing desert tourism depends on various factors and conditions, which can be achieved through systematic and structural application. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. AcknowledgmentsThis research is supported by the research grant of university of Mazandaran number33/26883). We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this pape.
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