آینده پژوهی شهرهای رقابت پذیر در زمینه گردشگری با رویکرد سناریونگاری، مطالعه موردی: شهر اصفهان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
حوزه های تخصصی:
شماره صفحات:
۵۹ - ۷۶
دریافت مقاله
آرشیو
چکیده
گردشگری به عنوان یک صنعت با بازدهی بالا، در چند دهه اخیر موردتوجه کشورهای مختلف قرارگرفته است. شهر اصفهان، از شهرهای با جاذبه های فراوان است که پتانسیل بسیاری برای رقابت با دیگر شهرها دارد. بدین منظور، این پژوهش با هدف آینده پژوهی شهر اصفهان به عنوان یک شهر رقابتی در حوزه گردشگری با رویکرد سناریونگاری تدوین شده است. این پژوهش از منظر هدف کاربردی، روش پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی و گردآوری داده ها کتابخانه ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی می باشد. در راستای تجزیه وتحلیل اطلاعات، با تکیه بر رویکرد آینده نگاری، روش تحلیل ساختاری و بالانس اثرات متقابل با استفاده از نرم افزارهای میک مک و سناریوویزارد به کار گرفته شده است. پس از بررسی پیشینه و مبانی نظری، 221 شاخص شهرهای رقابت پذیر مستخرج از منابع معتبر و به روز به کمک فن دلفی-فازی پالایش گردید. در مرحله بعد، با استفاده از روش تحلیل ساختاری، به شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی از میان 39 شاخص پالایش شده پرداخته شد. با تحلیل خروجی های نرم افزار، شاخص های سرمایه گذاری، کیفیت زیرساخت های گردشگری، اثربخشی بازاریابی برای جذب گردشگران و برنامه ریزی بازاریابی به سبب تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری مناسب بر سیستم موردبررسی، به عنوان شاخص های کلیدی شناسایی و در آخرین مرحله، با بهره گیری از روش بالانس اثرات متقابل، به تدوین و گسترش سناریوها پرداخته شد. 27 سناریو به کمک نرم افزار سناریوویزارد حاصل گردید که در سه دسته سناریوهای قوی و محتمل، سناریوهای با سازگاری بالا و سناریوهای ممکن و ضعیف طبقه بندی گردیدند. در انتها سبدهای سناریو پیش روی آینده گردشگری شهر اصفهان تشکیل داده شد. بر اساس نتایج، اگر شهر اصفهان بخواهد آینده مطلوبی در زمینه گردشگری داشته باشد، بایستی به کنترل و توسعه سه شاخص مذکور برای جذب گردشگران بپردازد.Isfahan Tourism Futures Study as a Competitive City with a Scenario Writing Approach
Tourism, as a highly productive industry, has received a great deal of attention in various countries in recent decades. Isfahan is one of the cities with many attractions that has the potential to compete with other cities in attracting tourists. For this purpose, this research started with the aim of a "future" study of Isfahan as a competitive city in the field of tourism using a scenario writing approach. This research is a research with a descriptive-analytical nature that is applied in terms of purpose. The methods of data collection are library, documentary, and questionnaire. In order to analyze the information, based on the futuristic approach, the method of structural analysis and interaction balance was used using MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software. After reviewing the research background and theoretical foundations, 221 indicators related to the study of competitive cities extracted from reliable and up-to-date sources were refined using the Delphi-fuzzy technique. In the next step, the structural analysis method identified key impulses from 39 refined indices. By analyzing software outputs, investment indicators, quality of tourism infrastructure, marketing effectiveness to attract tourists, and marketing planning were identified as key indicators due to the appropriate impact on the system under study. In the last stage, scenarios were developed using the interaction balance method. Twenty-seven scenarios were obtained by Scenario Wizard software, which were classified into three categories as strong and probable scenarios, high compatibility scenarios, and possible and weak scenarios. In the end, scenario baskets were formed for the future of tourism in Isfahan. According to the results, if Isfahan wants to have a favorable future in the field of tourism, it must control and develop the three indicators to attract tourists
Introduction
Travel and tourism have long been of interest to humans. People with different purposes have left their residences and traveled to different parts of the world in different periods. In the current era, travel and tourism are an important part of the service economy, as in 2013, it grew faster than other significant sectors, such as financial and commercial services, transportation, and construction. Also, in 2018, the industry reached 10.4% of world GDP, contributing to a similar share of employment and showing great resilience over the past decade. Tourism is recognized as the largest service industry in the world in terms of income, so its growth has led to many social and economic changes. The tourism industry is considered as one of the pillars of economic development in the modern era, which plays a vital role in the economic development of societies and is one of the most important components of sustainable income. Accordingly, different territorial units (countries, cities, regions, etc.) compete to attract incoming tourists. Cities are the "economic engine" of the major world economy, where economic and social capital is concentrated. They are essential centers for man's economic, scientific-technological, and cultural development. Cities compete for investment and new technologies to generate revenue from tourists. Competition for a tourist destination is associated with the region's ability to provide goods and services to tourists better than others, as well as highlighting its attractiveness to tourists. The weakness of developing countries, including Iran, ignoring the tourism industry and the lack of appropriate approaches and support at the macro level for the development of this sector despite the natural and historical potential is great. Isfahan is one of the cities with many attractions that have the potential to compete with other cities in attracting tourists. For this purpose, this research was started with the aim of "future" research of Isfahan as a competitive city in the field of tourism with a scenario design approach.
Methodology
This research has a descriptive-analytical nature that is applied in terms of purpose. The data collection method is in the form of library, documentary, and field studies (questionnaire). In order to analyze the information in this study based on a future approach, structural analysis method and balance of interactions, MIC MAC software (to evaluate the relationship between variables and extract key factors) and Scenario Wizard (to develop scenarios) have been used. The sample studied in this study is Isfahan, located in Iran, and the statistical population includes experts in the fields of tourism, urban planning, and future research. In this research, in order to advance the objectives of the research, the sample members must have sufficient and necessary knowledge in the field of tourism in Isfahan for "future" research, and since the sample members should be selected from experts in this field, has been. In this study, 20 experts in the fields of urban planning, urban planning, tourism, urban economics, and urban management have been selected as experts by purposive sampling. It should be noted that the selected experts have good work experience in relevant departments, including the General Directorate of Cultural Heritage, Roads and Urban Development, the municipality, consulting engineers, and university higher education.
Results and discussion
In this study, after reviewing the research background and theoretical foundations, 230 indicators related to the study of competitive cities extracted from reliable and up-to-date sources were refined using the Delphi-fuzzy technique. The structural analysis method identified key impulses from 39 refined indices in the next step. By analyzing software outputs, investment indicators, quality of tourism infrastructure, marketing effectiveness to attract tourists, and marketing planning due to the impact and appropriate impact on the system under review were recognized as key indicators and indicators of government support for tourism as a Priority, government approach, innovation, government budget allocation for tourism, part of the city budget, allocated for tourism development were identified as effective indicators. In the last stage of the research, using the balance of interaction method, scenarios were developed and developed. Twenty-seven scenarios were obtained by Scenario Wizard software. Scenarios were classified into three categories as strong and probable scenarios (3 scenarios), high compatibility scenarios (5 scenarios), and possible and weak scenarios (19 scenarios). In the end, scenario baskets for the future of tourism in Isfahan as a competitive city were formed.
Conclusion
According to this study, if Isfahan wants a favorable future in the field of tourism as a competitive city, it must control and develop three indicators as investment, quality of tourism infrastructure, and marketing planning to attract tourists. In addition to the three indicators mentioned above, if positive changes are made in the field of major indicators affecting tourism in Isfahan, including the approach, support, and government budgets, as well as budgets allocated for tourism development by Isfahan Municipality along with innovation, it can have a significant impact on improving tourism of Isfahan. In this situation, Isfahan can be considered a competitive city with other foreign and domestic cities in the field of tourism in the future.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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