مطالب مرتبط با کلید واژه " Crisis "


۱.

The Rise of ISIS and the Future of Iraq’s Security

نویسنده:

کلید واژه ها: Crisis Disintegration Regional security ISIS Iraq

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۴۱۸ تعداد دانلود : ۱۷۶
The group calling itself the Islamic State poses a grave threat, not just to Iraq and Syria but to the region more broadly and to the United States, as well as its global coalition partners. A deadly and adaptive foe, the Islamic State seemed to come out of nowhere in June 2014, when it conquered Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. However, the Islamic State of today is the direct descendant of a group that Iraq, the United States, and their partners once fought as al-Qaida in Iraq and then as the Islamic State of Iraq. Analysts and specialists had already spent years studying the group and actually knew quite a bit about it: how it financed and organized itself, how it established control, how it responded to air power, and what its ultimate goals were. The Republican meme is that every problem, including in the Middle East, is Barack Obama’s fault. Although emphasizing independence and self-reliance for America, they deny responsibility and accountability for their party. According to the GOP, George W. Bush left America and the world secure. The feckless Obama administration allowed the collapse of Iraq and rise of the Islamic State. For instance, Jeb Bush defended his brother’s policies. He cited the “brilliant, heroic, and costly” success of the Iraqi troop surge, asking “why was the success of the surge followed by a withdrawal from Iraq, leaving not even the residual force that commanders and the joint chiefs knew was necessary?” He complained that “now we have the creation of ISIS.” In contrast, he contended, “had we kept the 10,000 troop commitment that was there for the President to negotiate and to agree with, we probably wouldn’t have ISIS right now.” Bush declared that “The one thing about my brother: he kept us safe.”
۲.

Spatial Location of Urban Water and Wastewater installations, with the aim of increasing the resilience of crises

تعداد بازدید : ۸۷ تعداد دانلود : ۵۹
Crises have always caused many, and sometimes irreparable, damages and injuries to human nations having had adverse impacts on indices of society, economy and environment. Therefore analysis and optimum management of these crises are the priorities in the states around the world. Access to valid and up-to-date information plays the pivotal role in proper and timely programming and performance on managers’ and responsible organizations’ side in various phases of the crisis management cycle. While more than 80% of the required information in crises actually have a local and geographical nature, utilizing the modern technology of GIS with special capabilities in modeling, combining and analyzing the data can be effective and impasse-breaking while analyzing vast layers of information in both phases of prediction and strike of crises. A good knowledge of the crisis-causing factors before their strike or prediction of the essential arrangements to prevent or reduce their affects or aftermaths to the least is one of the base procedures in the management of unexpected events. In this direction, precision in properly locating the installations and passages of the pipes and canals would be immensely important; bearing in mind the key role of continuation of serving essential arteries; particularly water and sewage installations, in controlling and preventing the expansion of crises, and preserving public health and hygiene on the one hand, and the significant expenses of construction or reconstruction of these systems on the other. Thus, through this study, we have discussed how to exploit the creation and production procedures in purposefully locating water and sewage installations and also their other usages in designing, management, programming and development of these installations, in addition to introducing the geographical information systems and clarifications of the creation and production procedures. The location of urban water and sewage facilities is very effective in increasing the resilience of natural disasters through the use of the geographical information system.
۳.

Humanization of Certainty in the Philosophical Modernity

تعداد بازدید : ۷۶ تعداد دانلود : ۳۶
The importance of modernity is because of man's place as the axis of all beings and existents like God and the World, and they get their meaning and validity in the light of him. Although man has reason and freedom and he is the noble master of all creatures, in the meanwhile, he has many defects in his existence, and his accomplishments have been gradually increased during the centuries. Hence, we can say that man actually and absolutely does not have any perfection, and he cannot get his achievements perfectly. However, with changing in the relationship between man, God, and the world during the modernity age, the whole of man's approaches to God and the world changed, and this brings about some basic problems and crises. In this process, man gained and acquired a kind of genuineness and principality towards God and the existents of world that their place and importance, especially divine truths like God, were defined in the light of human epistemic abilities and their validity were depended on human knowledge. Hence, the place of divine truths was lowered to the limits of human understanding, which I call it the humanization of divine truths. On the other hand, because of his weakness for understanding the divine truths, man has gradually put them aside from his philosophical thought, and has recognized them meaningless. In the meanwhile, he has tried to understand the empirical world and its managing without considering what is beyond it. I call this demystification of the existents by the other areas such as ethics, politics, and even science, which all of them have been depended on the human being. Consequently, certainty and truth became humanistic, that is, man became as the axis of certainty and truth, which the most important result of that is the relativity of certainty and its restriction to human knowledge, will, and ability. This paper tries to discuss the above subjects, considering some of the important thinkers of modern and postmodern philosophy like as Descartes, Kant, Nietzsche, Sartre, and Heidegger. It also attempts to show that although Heidegger complained to subjectivism and modernistic approach of truth, his effort to redefine truth and certainty was not successful and could not rescue it from a crisis. That is because he could not go beyond human understanding to reach a holy and absolute certainty and truth, while – according to this paper – the only real way is paying attention to divine certainty, revelation, and God.
۴.

ارزیابی ریسک زلزله زرین شهر با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)

تعداد بازدید : ۱۳۶ تعداد دانلود : ۶۶
ایران یکی از زلزله خیزترین کشورهای دنیا محسوب می شود و شهرهای آن بر اثر این پدیده طبیعی آسیب های فراوانی دیده اند. استقرار ایران بر کمربند زلزله خیز آلپ - هیمالیا موجب شده است رخداد زمین لرزه به منزله یکی از مخاطراتی مطرح شود که بیشترین آسیب را در کشور به وجود می آورد. شهر زرین شهر نیز با توجه به آیین نامه مقررات ساختمان 2800 ویرایش چهارم، شرایط زمین ساختی و وجود چهار گسل اصلی و یک گسل فرعی در اطراف آن به شعاع 50کیلومتری و ثبت لرزه ها در این منطقه در 39 سال اخیر از این قاعده مستثنی نیست. در فرایند تهیه نقشه پهنه بندی و شتاب افقی خطر در شهر زرین شهر به روش احتمالاتی از مدل CRISIS، یکی از نرم افزارهای بسیار قوی و با دقت زیاد، استفاده شده است؛ از این رو در این پژوهش سعی شده است مدل های نوین برنامه ریزی مانند مدل فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) به کار گرفته شود. بررسی نتایج به دست آمده از این پژوهش نشان می دهد عوامل مختلف بر آسیب پذیری و خسارات ناشی از زلزله تأثیرگذاری متفاوتی دارند؛ به طوری که تأثیر عوامل محیطی مانند فاصله از گسل، جنس خاک و درصد شیب بیشتر از سایر عوامل است. عوامل کالبدی فیزیکی نظیر قدمت ساختمان، تراکم جمعیت، تعداد طبقات ساختمان ها، جنس مصالح و کاربری اراضی در وقوع زلزله پس از عوامل طبیعی در سطح دوم تأثیرگذاری بیشتری دارند. در این پژوهش از روش توصیفی - تحلیلی استفاده و پس از مشخص کردن معیارها، زیرمعیارها و گزینه ها در امر آسیب پذیری ناشی از زلزله و استفاده از نظر کارشناسان و اسناد موجود وزن های معیارها در نرم افزار Expert choice محاسبه شد. همچنین نقشه های مربوط با همپوشانی (Weighted sum) در نرم افزار Arc Gis گردآوری و ذخیره و مناطق آسیب پذیر شهر زرین شهر شناسایی و تحلیل شد. پس از تهیه نقشه پهنه بندی خطر و آسیب پذیری منطقه در نرم افزار Arc Gis با استفاده از حاصل ضرب (raster calculator) دو نقشه ایجادشده، نقشه نهایی ریسک شهر ترسیم و ریسک مناطق در پنج طبقه تحلیل شد.نتیجه حاکی است زرین شهر 30/4درصد ریسک بسیار کم، 27/23درصد ریسک متوسط و 47/3درصد ریسک بسیار زیاد دارد.
۵.

Representation of Crises in Coursebooks of the Public Education System: A Study Based on Content Analysis

تعداد بازدید : ۸۵ تعداد دانلود : ۱۰۰
how crises are represented in elementary and high school textbooks through content analysis method. In the first step, the basic concepts related to this topic, were extracted from Iranian and international scientific and legal documents deductively. Then, 68 extracted concepts were put into 12 categories and were sent to the field experts in the form of a questionnaire.The reliability coefficient of the questionnaire was computed.88 with Cronbach's Alpha. The extracted categorieswere again offered to some field experts and validated. Based on confirmed categories, the content of textbooks (28 titles) and teacher's guidebooks (12 titles) were analyzed. The results of analyzing the textbooks show that the main focus is first on the issue of crisisology and the consequences of crises, and second, on preventive actions which encompass%80 of the content. The remainder of the related content was concerned with other topics; the contribution of the content that focused on resiliency and recovery is less than other concepts.The comparison of the weights allocated by the experts and the weights gained from the textbooks analysis was made by Mann-Whitney U and Chi square tests; in both tests, a meaningful difference was observed.
۶.

The Association of Effectiveness and Legitimacy

نویسنده:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۷ تعداد دانلود : ۲۲
This paper tries to investigate the association between effectiveness and legitimacy in different political systems, applying a documentary method. To do so, firstly the notion of effectiveness is introduced followed by the notion of legitimacy and then their asso-cnnnnnnn n eeeeeeeeee Snnce eee iiiiiical iirrraeeee ff eeeeeee effeciieeeess ss ccacce, iiis term was defined through its opposite terms like ineffectiveness and crisis. The legiti-macy of political systems in this paper contains different types of legitimacy including divine, popular and combined legitimacy. The paper concludes that the main problem of the states is not the challenges to legitimacy and effectiveness but the real challenge is to draw the trajectory of goals and limitations in policy making and decision making.
۷.

Three Different Readings of al-Farabi’s Political Philosophy

نویسنده:
تعداد بازدید : ۰ تعداد دانلود : ۸۳
Addition to historical analyses, three different types of reading of the ideas of al-Farabi have been offered: First, the connection between his ideas and the Greek thought; second, the connection between his ideas and theology, and the relationship that can be established between philosophy and religiousness; and third, the explication of al-Farabi’s ideas on the basis of the crisis (-es) he faced. In the present article the relationship between al-Farabi’s philosophy and Greece, Islam and the social crisis of the time are elaborated on.