Risk Management

Managers in developed countries are increasingly interested in outsourcing as a potential source of competitiveness and value creation. One of the most useful outsourcing activities in service sector is information system/technology outsourcing. This paper is trying to determine the ISP managers’ perceived risks and benefits of IT/IS outsourcing and also the rate of awareness about potential of IT/IS outsourcing. Design/methodology/approach - In order to achieve those aims, we first review the previous literature on this topic and later analyze the results of a survey carried out from 30 ISPs managers in Tehran using the structured interview method. Findings: According to the ISPs under analysis, the main advantage of IT outsourcing is reducing/controlling the general cost while the main risk is the excessive dependence on the provider. Nevertheless, some characteristics of the ISPs (e.g. their size and outsourcing level) can determine to some extent what risks and benefits are more relevant. Originality /value: The conclusions explains that total IT/IS outsourcing can turn out to be a very dangerous strategy, mainly due to the dependence it creates. However, it can enable the ISP managers to reduce and/or control the general cost of building a new IT/IS service. The paper investigates the advantages, risks and some dimensions of IT/IS outsourcing decisions in ISPs of Tehran which can potentially develop the services in-house. Therefore, the “make-or-buy” decision for managers of ISPs requires even more attention to these aspects of IT/IS outsourcing (advantages, risks and decision criteria) than other service companies.

Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to present a model of the effect of social intelligence on teachers' quality of life by explaining the role of risk management. The research method was mixed and implemented with two types of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Methodology: The present study was a mixed (qualitative-quantitative) analysis. The statistical population of the present study included all teachers of North Khorasan province in the academic year of 2018-19. Based on this, 10 of them were selected with the criteria of over 15 years’ experience in educational management and doctorate level and were selected as the sample of the study. The statistical population was 13,800 in the North Khorasan Province Education Department. The statistical sample of the study was 400 people using quantitative Morgan table. In the qualitative part of the study, interview questions were formulated and 10 in-depth expert interviews were conducted with educational experts in the field of educational management. Then, using qualitative theme analysis, the main concepts of index extraction and coding were performed. In the quantitative part of the research, the effect of social intelligence on teacher quality of life was explained by explaining the role of risk management by using interpretive structural modeling method. Findings: The findings of the present study showed that "social intelligence" had an impact on "quality of life" and also social health mediated the relationship between social intelligence and quality of life. Conclusion: Teachers with high social intelligence establish very good social relationships with influential and important people, and this is precisely why their risk-taking on different subject’s increases.

This paper aims to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using GARCH type models with improved return distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) is an essential benchmark for measuring the risk of financial markets quantitatively. The parametric method, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo simulation have been proposed in several financial mathematics and engineering studies to calculate VaR, that each of them has some limitations. Therefore, these methods are not recommended in the case of complications in financial modeling since they require considering a series of assumptions, such as symmetric distributions in return on assets. Because the stock exchange data in the present study are skewed, asymmetric distributions along with symmetric distributions have been used for estimating VaR in this study. In this paper, the performance of fifteen VaR models with a compound of three conditional volatility characteristics including GARCH, APARCH and GJR and five distributional assumptions (normal, Student’s t, skewed Student’s t and two different Lévy distributions, include normal-inverse Gaussian (NIG) and generalized hyperbolic (GHyp)) for return innovations are investigated in the chemical, base metals, automobile, and cement industries. To do so, daily data from of Tehran Stock Exchange are used from 2013 to 2020. The results show that the GJR model with NIG distribution is more accurate than other models. According to the industry index loss function, the highest and lowest risks are related to the automotive and cement industries.

Corporate governance of banks is one of the most important structures required by banks to maintain the health and stability of banks, which can play an important role in managing banks' risk. This paper examines the effect of corporate governance on liquidity risk management, credit risk management, and total bank risk management. We used board structure effectiveness, transparency, and responsibility as corporate governance indicators. The financial ratio approach is also used to measure risk management. The period under review was 2006-2018. In addition to corporate governance criteria, other explanatory variables affecting banks' risk management have also been used. This paper used the performing unit root, cointegration, and F-Limmer tests to ensure panel estimation. Given the impact of past banks' risk management on current risk management, this variable has also been modeled as an explanatory variable. For this reason, the GMM method has been used to estimate the models in question. Given the importance of bank size in corporate governance on bank risk management, Banks are divided into large and small groups, so the effect of corporate governance in large and small banks has also been investigated on bank risk management. The results show that compliance with corporate governance criteria positively affects banks' risk management. However, due to weak corporate governance in large banks, corporate governance in large banks hurts bank risk management.

In customs management, the main problem is balancing the needs of trade facilita-tion as a process of simplifying and accelerating foreign business on the one hand and countering illegal trade, reducing government revenue, capital sleep and the level of controls and interventions on the other. Also, due to the financial crisis in recent years, risk management has been reconsidered, although this attention is related to various financial branches. Since risk analysis and identification is the main component of risk management, developing a suitable model for data analysis is of particular importance. The purpose of this study was to use data data analysis techniques to develop an intelligent model to timely predict the risk of import declarations in customs and thus prevent irreparable losses. In this study, data analysis techniques have been used according to the statistical population which is data-driven. Statistical data were extracted from www.eplonline.ir with 575006 import declarations of all Iranian customs during 2019-2020. having pre-processed and prepared the data using PCA, LDA and FastICA methods, attribute reduction and effective attribute extraction were performed using 14 data analysis algorithms. Using Python software, algorithms were trained and modeled with 80% of the final data. Then, 14 obtained models were tested and validated with 20% of the data. Finally, the results of these models were compared with each other and the model obtained from the random forest algorithm was selected as a comprehensive model for predicting and determining the level of risk of import declarations at customs.

This study aimed to develop an internal control model for the Iranian Social Security Organization with a risk management approach. This exploratory study is applied in terms of objective, and the statistical population comprised 340 employees in the financial department of the Iranian Social Security Organization. The data was collected using interviews and questionnaires, and the hypotheses were tested with inferential statistics and structural equation tests. The results showed that the internal control factors of the Iranian Social Security Organization include the income bank system, the legal obligations system, compensation, the financial bookkeeping system, the movable and immovable property system, the financial management system, and check issuance requirements. The results also showed that the factors affecting internal controls are among the factors influencing risk management. Considering the extent of branches, dimensions, various services including (retirement, disability) and the size and volume of financial operations, as well as the very high budget of the Social Security Organization (for example, in 1401, the budget of the Social Security Organization is 500 thousand billion Rials), there are many factors on the controls Empty and effective risk management. The most important factors affecting the Social Security Organization's internal controls' efficacy are the financial bookkeeping system, Payroll system, And Legal requirements for issuing checks.

Purpose: This research aimed to identify and evaluate the risks of content production in the governmental digital libraries of Tehran.Method: In terms of essence, this research is synthetic (library studies, qualitative and quantitative), and regarding purpose, it is an applied one.  In the first part, using the studies of the research literature, a set of indicators related to the risks of content production in the governmental libraries of Tehran was obtained. The second part of this research involved a fuzzy Delphi approach that was conducted at two stages among 20 experts. In this stage, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the indicators obtained from the first stage was used. The third part of the research was a survey-analysis conducted with a quantitative method using a questionnaire made out based on the results of qualitative stage with three criteria: the probability of occurrence, effect intensity, and the inability of organization to respond and was distributed among 100 managers and experts of governmental digital libraries in Tehran.Findings: In this research, the risks of content production were identified and fell into nine major categories (human force, environmental factors, infrastructure, protection and maintenance,  creators`  technical rights, integration, content evaluation of sources and authors and information security).Conclusion: The results of this evaluation show that digital libraries are not exactly at their best level when it comes to their responses to the risk of human resources, authors' rights, and integration risks.