مطالعات و تحقیقات اجتماعی در ایران

Iran has undergone unique demographic changes in the recent decades. This paper aims to project the natural population growth rate -NPG over the next decade (2024–2034), which would offer a comprehensive perspective into the future of Iran's population dynamics. In this regard, to accomplish the above task, this work deals with the projection of most important demographic measures that characterize the population process, namely the Crude Birth Rate -CBR, the Crude Death Rate -CDR, and the Population Doubling Time- PDT. To this end, a deep neural network modeling approach was developed and applied. Forecasting with deep neural networks is one of the most important and influential techniques used in machine learning and artificial intelligence. The data-driven model, based on data obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran, was subsequently implemented for model development in MATLAB.Results from the paper indicate that the CBR drops from 11.3 per thousand in 2024 to 9.3 per thousand in 2034. On the other hand, the CDR increases from 5.2 per thousand in 2025 to 6.1 per thousand in 2034. With this effect, the NPG decreases from 6.1 per thousand in 2025 to 3.2 per thousand in 2034. Lastly, PDT for the population is forecasted to rise from 114 years in 2025 to 218 years in 2034.This study presents a deep neural network model for describing and forecasting the complex dynamics of population changes in Iran. Constructing this model helps policy-makers and planners use the forecasted population dynamics to design and implement programs and policies with greater precision.

Economic precariousness, as a key structural characteristic of Iran’s economy in recent decades, has had widespread effects on the labor market and the life practices of young people. In this context, resilience can be analyzed as a cultural-social mechanism for confronting unstable conditions—rather than merely a return to a prior state. This study aims to identify the components of the discourse of resilience among Iranian youth facing precarious employment and to analyze how these components are represented in experiential narratives.The research follows a qualitative design and employs Norman Fairclough’s three-dimensional model of Critical Discourse Analysis. Data were collected through 20 semi-structured interviews with students who are employed or seeking work in Tehran and were analyzed thematically.Findings indicate that resilience is represented through four major discursive components: “a shared understanding of labor market dysfunction,” “internalization of instability and acceptance of hardship,” “micro-resistance and innovation,” and “meaning reconstruction through humorous engagement.” These components are interpreted using approaches from critical sociological theories, including Bourdieu’s habitus and symbolic capital, Foucault’s governmentality and subjectivity, James C. Scott’s notion of everyday resistance, Asef Bayat’s concept of viable action, and Butler’s reconceptualization of agency within vulnerability.The results suggest that the discourse of resilience under conditions of economic precariousness, while internalizing existing circumstances, also enables the creation of meaning and micro-scale agencies; rather than being a passive coping mechanism, resilience becomes a mode of living within crisis.

The Rentier State Theory, the Dutch disease Paradigm, and the natural resource curse are some of the dominant perspectives developed to explain the sociopolitical and economic conditions of oil-rich countries. But the important issues, neglected by these theoretical frameworks, are the high effects of intense budget dependence on oil revenues, revenue fluctuations, and the institutional framework in which policies are made. These factors determine the outcome of oil revenues to society and under this circumstance, efficient policies to deal with socioeconomic problems such as inequality are not taken. This paper aims to elucidate the mechanism of interaction between oil revenue dependency, income fluctuation, and the lack of efficient institutions to address the problem of inequality in Iran, an oil-rich country. We ask: what consequences has reliance on oil revenues had for inequality in post-revolutionary Iran?This study adopts a documentary analysis approach, relying on data drawn from reports issued by official institutions including the Central Bank of Iran, the Statistical Center of Iran, and OPEC to investigate the dynamics under consideration.The results demonstrate that both the extent and the trajectory of inequality in post-revolutionary Iran have been closely linked to fluctuations in oil revenues. Two important patterns are particularly noteworthy. First, during periods of revenue windfalls, the upper strata capture a disproportionate share of the benefits. Second, the economy’s structural dependence on oil income, together with the volatility inherent in such revenues and the absence of robust institutional frameworks, has entrenched persistent inequality, while simultaneously generating shifts in inequality that mirror the cyclical changes in oil revenues.

By an approach of the sociology of time, this article seeks to examine the consequences of transformations in the space-time order of society ensuing rapid modernization processes for Iranian intellectuals in the decades succeeding to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. First, it explores how certain Western thinkers and philosophers confronted the spread of “empty time,” and then turns to the works of three influential Iranian intellectuals of that period -Dariush Shayegan, Ali Shari‘ati, and Jalal Al-e Ahmad, aiming to compare their positions. It also asks: How did they during that period engage with the category of modern time? How did it touch their assessment and understanding of the West? And can a kind of relationship be discerned between their time-based assessments and their demand for political changes?This paper takes on a document-based approach, applying the theoretical sampling to analyse the primary texts of three intellectuals under studyThe findings suggest that the dominance of modern empty time constituted a these intellectuals’ discontent with the West, and that their concerns were closely tied to their dissatisfaction with modernity and autocratic modernization processes. Their dissatisfaction, in turn, promoted their estrangement from the Shah’s regime and its western-oriented social reform projects and their receptivity to a fundamental transformation of society grounded in religion and tradition as well.It concludes that while Western philosophers grappled with the hollowing out of time in modernity, seeking to reclaim meaningful moments through Diogenic temporalities or expressive dimensions of modern life. Iranian intellectuals also attempted to offset and fill the unbearable lightness of modern time with the weight of tradition. Despite the post-revolutionary slowdown of processes of modernization and a return to tradition, additionally, the problem of the emptiness of modern time has yet remained an unavoidable and open-ended challenge for Iranian thinkers and intellectuals.

Hope and hopelessness are reflections of an individual's consciousness and understanding of society and the way they interact with the social order, not a mere emotional understanding. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the problematic nature of hope and hopelessness to recognize the conditions that cause hopelessness and prevent the realization of youth's hope, their lived experiences, and the interpretations they make of their situation.Qualitative research and data were collected by the purposive sampling method, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 youth from Tabriz city to gather data, which were then analyzed using thematic analysis techniques.The results indicate that the live experience of youth of hope and hopelessness is influenced by conditions such as living in the shadow of economic instability, living with political adversity, and the lack of subjectivity. The youth's strategy to avoid hopelessness and achieve hope is pragmatic-critical activism: individual activism, confrontational compromise, and migration. They seek to create and reconstruct possible alternatives and give meaning to their lives by adopting this activism according to the real and practical conditions of life and in opposition to structural constraints. Hope, and even for some, hopelessness, is seen as a feasibility for activism in confronting social, political, and economic inequalities and the unfair distribution of opportunities and life chances.Therefore, policymakers must expand opportunities for youth agency and reduce structural limitations, as well as develop strategies to strengthen and facilitate these conditions and encourage their participation in the process of social meaning-making.

With the expansion of migration flows in recent decades, one of the major challenges facing host societies is shaping public attitudes toward international migrants and patterns of interaction with them. This study examines the attitudes of Iranian citizens toward international migrants and the factors that influence these attitudes.To this end, we conducted a secondary analysis of data from the seventh wave of the World Values Survey, implemented in Iran in 2020, based on a sample of 1,499 respondents. More recent data on attitudes toward migrants are not collected in any national surveys; therefore, up-to-date information is unavailable, and we relied on the 2020 survey.The findings indicate that 25.5% of respondents hold negative attitudes toward migrants, while 17% express positive attitudes. Analyses show that materialist values, social trust, and exposure to mass and digital media are significantly associated with more favorable attitudes toward migrants. Conversely, feelings of social insecurity and a high sense of Iranian national identity are linked to more negative attitudes. Path analysis further reveals that social trust has the strongest effect on the formation of positive attitudes toward migrants.Accordingly, strengthening social capital, reducing perceptions of insecurity through public education, and promoting positive narratives about migrants in the media can contribute to improving societal attitudes. This is particularly important given the anticipated rise in migration flows in the coming years.

Becoming a victim of crime is a major concern for citizens of any society. Fear of crime is a real, logical or illogical concern that arises from the inference that a person is at risk of being victimized. The Purpose of the present study is to examine the effect of victimization on fear of crime, relying on Routine activities and lifestyle theories. The research method is a survey and the data collection tool is a questionnaire. The statistical population of the study consists of all students studying at the University of Mazandaran in 1403-1404, of which a total of 400 students were selected using a stratified sampling method.The description of the dependent variable shows that 30.3% of respondents experienced fear of crime at a low level, 57.5% at a medium level, and 12.3% at a high level. This rate was higher among girls than among boys. The results of the study show that of all the variables included in the regression model, the intensity of attachment to deviant friends and social ties had a significant effect on student victimization. The variable of intensity of attachment to deviant friends had a positive relationship and social connection had a negative relationship with victimization. The variable of intensity of attachment to deviant friends was also the most important explanatory variable of victimization. In addition, the variable of victimization as a mediating variable had a significant effect on perceived fear of crime.Students who are most concerned about the risk of being a victim of crime are the ones who fear crime the most. The fear of crime, the symbol or symbol of being a victim, is criminal, so that payment and abundance of victims become crimes, the intense feeling of fear of crime leads to crime. explained. However, fear of crime varies between individuals, depending on factors such as the individual's status, type, and environment, as well as important social and psychological factors.

Greenwashing is one of the emerging social harms in industry and companies, which can be considered a form of organizational hypocrisy and dissemination of misleading information to deceive citizens; in other words, greenwashing is the instrumental use of the concept of environmental protection with the aim of gaining economic profit.The purpose of this study is to identify and sociologically analyze the social factors influencing greenwashing, employing the Grey DEMATEL technique to determine the causal and interactive relationships among these factors. The statistical population of the study includes professors of the faculty of economics, management, and social sciences of Shiraz University. The sampling method was purposive sampling and the sample size was determined to be 12 people. Data were collected using library research methods and the questionnaire instrument.The results of the analysis using the Grey DEMATEL technique showed that the variables of social stress, social isolation, feeling of social insecurity, and decreased social participation had the greatest impact on greenwashing. It was also found that the variables of social distrust, physical and psychological risks, environmental risks, and reduced organizational creativity received the greatest impact from the greenwashing variable. In addition, in terms of importance, the variables of social distrust with a value of 6.52, physical and psychological risks with a value of 6.38, environmental risks with a value of 6.12, decreased organizational creativity with a value of 5.97, and decreased social participation with a value of 5.80 have the most importance.By reinforcing distrust and increasing social stress, greenwashing negatively affects both the mental and physical health of individuals and weakens the dynamism and efficiency of organizations, ultimately creating an obstacle to achieving sustainable development

The introduction of technology into various areas of social life, including sports and sports competitions, has grown significantly in recent years. One of these technologies is the video assistant referee (VAR) in football matches, and the present study aims to investigate the sociological nature of this technology and its impact on the social structure of Iranian football.This research was conducted with a qualitative approach and using thematic analysis method. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 sports experts (including referees, coaches, university professors, veterans and analysts of the Iranian Premier Football League).The findings showed that VAR makes sense at three levels: from the perspective of technological determinism as a determining force in behavior and decision-making; from the perspective of technological effects as a tool for promoting justice and social control; and from the perspective of social constructionism as a phenomenon whose meanings and functions are redefined in the interactions and lived experiences of actors. On the one hand, this technology has led to a relative enhancement of the sense of justice and increased social trust in referees, but on the other hand, it has brought consequences such as weakening the referee's symbolic authority, reducing collective emotion, transferring the locus of protests from the field to the media, and creating cultural inequality due to differences in infrastructure. Also, institutional distrust and poor media transparency were identified as the main obstacles to the full acceptance of VAR in Iran.VAR technology in Iranian football has a dual effect: on the one hand, it increases the accuracy of refereeing and the sense of justice, and on the other hand, it causes psychological tensions and changes in social and cultural interactions. The findings of this study can be beneficial for sports policymakers, the Football Federation, and the media in optimizing the implementation of VAR and reducing its negative consequences.