تحلیل زیست پذیری منطقه 6 کلان شهر تهران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف از پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر آینده زیست پذیری منطقه 6 کلان شهر تهران و به دنبال آن تحلیل این عوامل برای ارائه سناریوهای مختلف در افق 1420 است. پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از منظر ماهیت توصیفی تحلیلی محسوب می شود. جامعه آماری، آمار و اطلاعات مربوط به سال 1395 منطقه موردمطالعه که از مرکز آمار ایران کسب شده است و کارشناسان شهرداری و متخصصان و نخبگان شهری می باشد. برای جمع آوری داده های مورد نیاز از روش کتابخانه ای و میدانی و برای تجزیه وتحلیل داده ها از فنون متعدد آینده پژوهی، تحلیل اثرات متقابل (تحلیل ساختاری) و سناریونویسی و همچنین از نرم افزارهای آینده پژوهی نظیر Micmac استفاده شده است. مهم ترین متغیرها و شاخص های تأثیرگذار در تحقق زیست پذیری، در راند اول 60 عامل در راند دوم 33 عامل و در راند سوم نیز بدون تغییر 33 عامل به عنوان عوامل مؤثر مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند که در نهایت بر اساس نظر و امتیاز خبرگان و کارشناسان،24 عامل کلیدی و 9 پیشران مؤثر شناسایی شده اند. زیست پذیری منطقه 6 در ابعاد مختلف در حد نامطلوب می باشد و درنهایت چهار سناریو مختلف مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند. از میان 33 عامل،3 عامل اصلی به عنوان عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر آینده های زیست پذیری انتخاب شد که از کمترین میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری برخوردارند. این متغیرها شامل اشتغال، تراکم جمعیت، کاهش سرانه های تجاری اداری، نقش فرا منطقه ای، کاهش سرانه های مسکونی، وجود کاربرهای آموزش عالی، کاربری های درمانی فرا منطقه ای و مهاجرت پذیری می باشندLivability analysis of area 6 of Tehran metropolis with a future research approach
The aim of the current research is to identify the factors affecting the future livability of the 6th district of Tehran metropolis and then analyze these factors to present different scenarios in the horizon of 1420. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The statistical population, the statistics and information related to the year 2015 of the study area, which was obtained from the Iranian Statistics Center and the Delphi method, are municipal experts, specialists and urban elites.To collect the required data, library and field methods have been used, and to analyze the data, various future research techniques, mutual effects analysis (structural analysis) and scenario writing have been used. In this regard, future research software such as Micmac has been used. In the first round, 60 factors, in the second round, 33 factors, and in the third round, 33 factors were analyzed as effective factors without change. Experts have identified 24 key factors and 9 effective drivers. the livability of area 6 is unfavorable in different dimensions and finally four different scenarios were analyzed. Among the 33 factors, 3 main factors were selected as the key factors affecting the future of livability, which have the least influence. These variables include employment, population density, reduction of commercial-administrative per capita, extra-regional role, reduction of residential per capita, presence of higher education users, extra-regional therapeutic uses and immigration
Introduction
In the current conditions of the world, sustainable urban development and the formation of sustainable cities is one of the most important challenges for humanity in the 21st century, which is caused by the mismatch between the development of urban areas and the biological, social and economic needs of city residents. Half of the world's population lives in urban centers and the rapid growth of urbanization poses physical, social, economic and environmental challenges Such as insecurity, unemployment, reduction of natural resources, pollution, inappropriate urban facilities and unbalanced distribution of urban services have followed and led to a drop in livability. Therefore, although cities are the best place and way of life, they are also the foundation and shaper of many basic challenges of citizens' lives, and in recent decades, they have lost their vitality and livability in many cases. The main goal of urban livability is satisfaction with living and the quality of the urban environment of communities, which level of satisfaction depends on the priority of citizens' needs.
Methodology
The current research is considered to be applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and method. The statistical population of the research includes statistics and information related to the year 2015 of the study area, which was obtained from the Iranian Statistics Center, and includes municipal experts, specialists and urban elites. Library and field methods have been used to collect the data required for the research. In order to analyze the data and conduct the research, the Delphi method and various techniques of future research, analysis of mutual effects (structural analysis) and scenario writing have been applied to the future research of livability for the 6th district of Tehran. In this regard, future research software such as Micmac has been used.
Results and discussion
In the present research, to identify the most important indicators and variables affecting the future of the study area's livability, in the first step, after studying the literature and the background of the research, an effort was made to identify the variables. The result of which was the identification of 33 key factors influencing the livability of District 6 of Tehran metropolis. In the second stage, 25 experts were selected from among the university professors, the experts of the 6th district of Tehran. The output of this stage, according to the type and importance of the issue, was the identification of 60 key variables by the experts, which were speculated about the most important factors affecting the future viability of District 6 of Tehran metropolis. Among the 33 factors investigated in this research, 3 main factors were selected as the key factors affecting the future of livability in the 6th district of Tehran metropolis, which have the lowest level of influence. These variables include employment, population density, decrease in commercial-administrative per capita, extra-regional role, decrease in residential per capita, presence of higher education users, extra-regional medical uses and immigration. Finally, MicMac software provided the main and key driver for compiling and narrating the livability scenarios of District 6 of Tehran metropolis, which included employment and population density.
Conclusion
The most important variables and indicators influencing the realization of the livability of the 6th district of Tehran metropolis after studying and reviewing the documents and information and in the first stage 60 factors, in the second stage 33 factors and in the third stage without change 33 factors were analyzed by Mikmak software Finally, based on the opinions and scores of experts, 24 key factors and 9 effective drivers have been identified. The future perspective of the studied area for 1420 was compiled based on the research findings in the form of 4 scenarios, namely the first scenario (green situation), the second scenario (good situation), the third scenario (poor situation) and the fourth scenario (critical situation). In the first scenario for the future study of the viability of Tehran region 6 in the horizon of 1420, the driving forces will influence the key factors in the region in a balanced and rational manner, and sustainable urban development policies will continue. Among the features of the second scenario are: balance in physical plans, relative balance of economic policies, spending less on facilities and equipment, improving the quality of environmental health, balance in transportation, concentration of people with high education, vitality, concentration of specialists, relative health People, suitable employment, etc., which by adjusting and standardizing the existing per capita and removing disturbing or inconsistent uses with the urban environment, the region will be in a relatively favorable situation. Therefore, in the third scenario, the situation of the region will be weak in terms of livability. The fourth scenario shows a critical situation for the region, which will face various social, economic,environmental and physical crises.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
تبلیغات
