Charles Harvie

Charles Harvie

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۱.

Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Adjustment: a DSGE modeling approach for the Case of Libya, 1970–2007(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

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Libya experienced a substantial increase in oil revenue as a result of increased oil prices during the period of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and again after 2000. Recent increases in oil production and the price of oil, and their positive and negative macroeconomic impacts upon key macroeconomic variables, are of considerable contemporary importance to an oil dependent economy such as that of Libya. In this paper a dynamic macroeconomic model is developed for Libya to evaluate the effects of additional oil revenue, arising from positive oil production and oil price shocks, upon key macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. It takes into consideration the impact of oil revenue upon the non-oil trade balance, foreign asset stock, physical capital stock, human capital stock, imported capital stock and non-oil production. Model simulation results indicate that additional oil revenue brings about: an increase in government revenue, increased government spending in the domestic economy, increased foreign asset stocks, increased output and wages in the non oil sector. However, increased oil revenue may also produce adverse consequences, particularly upon the non-oil trade balance, arising from a loss of competitiveness of non-oil tradable goods induced by an appreciation of the real exchange rate and increased imports stimulated by increased real income. Model simulation results also suggest that investment stimulating policy measures by government produce the most substantive benefits for the economy.
۲.

East Asian Production Networks – The Role and Contribution of SMEs(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

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کلید واژه ها: Small and medium enterprises Asia–Pacific region financial crisis

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The Asia-Pacific region generates over half of global economic activity (54.2%) and about 43.7% of global trade, and is the most dynamic region in the global economy. At the core of this is an increasingly dynamic, vibrant and entrepreneurial small-medium sized enterprise sector. Advances in information and communications technology, market liberalisation and moves towards closer regional economic integration (e.g. ASEAN, and prospective ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+5 and ASEAN+6 arrangements) provide new opportunities, as well as new challenges, for regional small business entrepreneurs. In conjunction with these developments has come the increased recognition by regional governments, particularly in the wake of the 1997-98 financial and economic crisis, of the need for expanded entrepreneurial activity in the context of small businesses for the generation of regional income, employment, exports, investment, economic growth, poverty alleviation and regional development. This would also facilitate comprehensive restructuring of corporate sectors, with the aim of improving transparency, improving corporate governance, developing globally competitive enterprises, and further developing the region’s burgeoning and economically significant production networks. This paper reviews the contribution of small-medium sized business entrepreneurs in the Asia-Pacific region, the challenges and opportunities they face in the context of globalisation and regional developments, key capacity building areas, government support measures and potential competitiveness strategies for their survival and development.
۳.

Resource Price Turbulence and Macroeconomic Adjustment for a Resource Exporter(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

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The increased demand for energy and other resources in global markets، particularly arising from the rapidly developing economies of China and India، has resulted in considerable turbulence in resource prices، and most obviously that of oil. The recent magnitude of change، both positive and negative، in resource prices and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance for both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy، such as that of Australia، the resource price boom had a number of beneficial effects: increased government taxation revenues، increased employment and higher wages in the resource and resource related sectors، increased spending in the domestic economy and buoyant economic growth، increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments are likely to have adverse effects on the non resource sector that is subject to more competition for limited resources، a stronger exchange rate results in a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports، a loss of employment in the non resource sector which is likely to be more labour intensive، and an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects، and the overall impact of a resource price boom، will fundamentally require closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be crucial in producing overall positive effects. The objective of this paper is to provide an analytical framework that can be utilised for a resource exporting economy for this purpose. This paper develops a dynamic macroeconomic model for a resource producing and exporting economy، with the objective of capturing key macroeconomic outcomes arising from an increase in the price of the resource. The adjustment process in the model emphasises a spending (or wealth) effect، an income effect، a revenue effect، a current account effect and an exchange rate effect from resource production that will facilitate a robust analysis of the macroeconomic impact of resource price shocks and policy responses to this.

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