محمد همتی

INTRODUCTION: Since Iran is located in the semi-arid belt, it has faced such issues as drought, dust crisis, and intensified migration. The assessment of the effects of climate change includes identifying some key aspects of uncertainties used to estimate its impacts, such as uncertainties in the context of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs): in regional-scale climatology, in statistical or dynamic downscaling methods, and parametric and structural uncertainties in different models. One of the most important sources of uncertainty in climate change is the use of different AOGCMs that produce different outputs for climate variables. METHODS: In this study, to investigate the uncertainty of AOGCM models, the downscaled data of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset obtained from 21 AOGCMs with medium Representative Concentration Pathway4.5 scenario were downloaded from the NASA site for 81 cells in Hamadan Province, Iran. After the validation of the models, they were evaluated against the criteria of the coefficient of determination and model efficiency coefficient in comparison with the data of the Hamedan synoptic station in the statistical period of 1976-2005. To reduce the uncertainty of AOGCMs, the ensemble performance (EP) of models was used in Climate Data Operators software. FINDINGS: It was revealed that MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, BNU-ESM, ACCESS1-0, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR models had better performance than similar models. It was also found that IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CESM1-BGC, and GFDL-ESM2M had the lowest correlation between observational and simulation data of mean monthly precipitation. CONCLUSION: According to the results, this method could provide a good estimate in the base period (1976-2005), compared to the data of the Hamedan synoptic station, and was more accurate compared to the single implementation method of each AOGCM model. The results of EP of models in the future period (2020-2049) showed that precipitation will not change considerably in the future and will increase by 0.23 mm. In addition, the average, maximum, and minimum annual temperatures will increase by 1.54°C, 1.7°C, and 1.40°C, respectively.

Competitive advantages play a unique role in organizations' successes or failures because of customers' very speedy accessibility to suppliers and manufacturers. Indeed, this is competitive advantages which can make firms and organizations survive and grow in today's increasing competitive field attaining by creating and or improving their capabilities. The main goal of the study is to design a grounded theory model extracted from the transnational capabilities, but this required to explore the transnational capabilities aiming for the international markets entry. The statistical population of this qualitative research included experts and managers working in the steel pipe manufacturing companies of Iranian gas and oil industry. The data collected via interviews. The validity assured by counseling with the elites and university professors and the reliability verified by the Delphi technique. The findings revealed 496 open, 44 axial and 9 selective codes including: 1) Marketing, 2) Managerial, 3) Human Resources, 4) Financial, 5) Manufacturing, 6) Quality & Standards, 7) Research & Development 8) Logistics and 9) Interactions and counseling with the government. Finally, a new model extracted and represented from analysis of the axial coding process of the grounded theory. The model precisely clarified relationships among the components including casual conditions, context, actions/interactions (strategies), intervening conditions and consequences. Recognition of the relationships of the components will help better understanding of the capabilities. This will lead to attain the competitive advantages needed for successful entry into the international markets.

The purpose of this research is to design a model for evaluating the policies of proportionalization of administrative system formations in Iranian National Oil Company. In this regard, the research method was a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools with an applied orientation along with survey strategy and inductive approach. The qualitative part of the research included a review of the records and background of the research and conducting library studies based on the content analysis and meta-composition methods and the Delphi technique, and in the quantitative part, several techniques and tools were used, including interpretive structural modeling and structural equations, factor analysis, pairwise comparison matrix, and questionnaire tools. By carrying out the qualitative stage and refining and screening and verifying the achievements in the quantitative stage, finally 89 indicators in the form of 11 dimensions and 35 components, under the four main concepts of "policy evaluation", "proportionalization", "administrative system formations" and "macro environment" were counted and classified. In the next step, by identifying the relationship and mutual effect of the identified factors, the evaluation model of the design policy and finally the validity and reliability of the model was put into the test and approved. The issue of the optimal size of the government and the public policies related to it has been discussed and debated among political and economic experts for about three decades in the documents of the government and the ruling space of the country with different expressions such as "downsizing", "privatization" and "rationalization". Following the studies conducted in this research, with the premise that on one hand, the correct and scientific evaluation of public policies has an undeniable role in the successful implementation of policies, and on the other hand, in our country, the issue of evaluating public policies has always been like a missing link in the space that governs this territory and better management of resources in Iranian National Oil Company.